For 23 years, Chechnya has been under the thumb of the Kadyrovs, who have suppressed any critical, let alone democratic, voice. Even the various clans, which previously fought each other, have not raised their heads for years.
His father has been ill for some time and may even be on the verge of death, according to some sources. His eighteen-year-old son, a potential successor, was involved in a serious car accident and was flown to Moscow in critical condition. Chechnya is thus once again causing great concern for Moscow because, if the Kadyrov dynasty were to fall, the Islamic republic in the Caucasus could once again become a powder keg. For years, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Chechnya, which sought independence from Russia, was a thorn in the side of the Kremlin. After a first and second war with thousands of deaths and great destruction between 1994 and the turn of the century, Vladimir Putin has placed all his bets on the Kadyrov family.
First, Akhmat, a former leader of separatist gangs, became president of an Islamic republic that had surrendered to become an integral part of the Russian Federation.
Then, after his death in an attack in 2004, power passed to his son Ramzan, who brutally pacified Chechnya and emerged as Putin’s most loyal servant. Ramzan has long been thinking about his successor, working on raising his children. Adem, eighteen, is certainly the one the president has relied on. Despite his young age, he is secretary of the Security Council in Grozny, having served as head of the presidential guard. He also oversees the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The car he was in was involved in a major accident on the streets of the capital. It is still not clear what exactly happened, but Adem’s condition immediately appeared extremely serious. He was taken to a hospital in Grozny, where he was stabilized and then flown to Moscow.
Ramzan, 50, is also said to be in serious condition, having missed a meeting with Putin a few weeks ago. There are reports of kidney failure, pancreatic necrosis and pulmonary symptoms resulting from it.
Official sources, of course, deny everything. In Moscow, the military-linked Telegram channels Baza, Shot and Mash have reportedly been ordered not to publish any news about the Kadyrovs. Kadyrov has other children, but they do not seem capable of taking over the reins of the country if their father were to die. The eldest is Akhmat, twenty, who is deputy prime minister but seems to be focused mainly on his role as Minister of Physical Culture and Sports. Then there is Zelimkhan, about ten months older than Adem, who heads the boxing federation. Then there are three daughters, Khutmat, Aisha and Tabarik, who have also held government roles (Aisha was Minister of Culture), but who cannot possibly have ambitions for leadership in a deeply Islamic country.
For 23 years, Chechnya has been under the thumb of the Kadyrovs, who have suppressed any critical, let alone democratic, voice. Even the various clans, which previously fought among themselves, have not raised their heads for years. Under Ramzan’s leadership, former guerrillas have gone to fight for Putin in Ukraine, albeit with limited success. But if the dynasty were to suddenly collapse, the conflict in the Caucasus could be dramatically reignited.