The Middle East is once again entering a critical moment, where diplomacy and military power walk side by side in a fragile balance. Is an attack on Iran imminent?
As talks between Washington and Tehran approach a turning point, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and escalation scenarios loom on the horizon that could reshape the regional security architecture. Are we facing a calculated push for a deal, or the brink of a clash that could change the geopolitical balance across the Middle East?
Hours before what is likely to be the final round of talks between Iran and the United States, to be held in Geneva on Thursday, US forces are completing their deployment to the wider Middle East theatre. The aircraft carrier Ford is in Souda Bay, Crete, awaiting a possible deployment off the coast of the Levant, with a stop in the port of Haifa also rumored, while the air bridge between the US and bases in the Middle East, via Europe, continues.
WHY US-IRAN TALKS RISK OF FAILURE
The signals for a possible agreement are extremely weak, despite Iranian optimism: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had declared to CBS, in an interview broadcast on Sunday, that there were “good possibilities” for a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue, adding that this was the only topic under discussion.
CHINA’S SUPPORT AND IMPACT ON THE MILITARY BALANCE
Meanwhile, Tehran is receiving support from China: in addition to publishing satellite images of US bases in the Middle East, just as it did before the June 2025 attack, the People’s Republic has sent a Type 055-class destroyer and its most advanced spy ship, the Liaowang-1, to the Persian Gulf. This ship is equipped to monitor military satellites and track missile launches, and also serves as a mobile command and control center for naval operations.
Above all, Beijing has given Tehran access to its BeiDou navigation satellite system, following Iran’s abandonment of the US GPS. China is believed to be providing Iran with useful intelligence in the event of a counterattack.
It was reported today that Tehran is close to finalizing a deal with Beijing to purchase CM-302 anti-ship missiles, although no delivery date has been agreed. These supersonic missiles have a range of about 290 kilometers and are designed to evade naval defenses by flying at low altitude and high speed. Their deployment would significantly increase Iran’s offensive capabilities and pose a threat to US naval forces in the region, but there is currently no indication that the delivery is in progress.
THE THREE AMERICAN SCENARIOS
In this political and military context, what would be the American options for an attack on Iran? The first option would be non-kinetic in nature. The US, together with Israel, could carry out cyberattacks to disable military and civilian targets, reducing Iranian defensive and reactive capacity and striking critical infrastructures of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which manages Iran’s missile arsenal and nuclear program.
Another non-kinetic option would be to use radio frequency or microwave weapons to degrade or destroy microchips in key Iranian systems, of course those that are not protected, such as those in deep bunkers. Information warfare should also be considered: the US could facilitate the entry of more Starlink terminals into Iran to bypass the regime’s internet blockade and spread anti-regime propaganda.
The second option, also mentioned by President Donald Trump, would involve limited airstrikes on targets of high strategic value: nuclear infrastructure, IRGC command and control centers, armed forces headquarters, and known missile depots. It would be a limited air campaign, lasting two or three days, that would primarily use stand-off systems such as Tomahawk missiles, attack drones, and F-35 aircraft with long-range weapons.
The third option would be a long and intensive air campaign, which would include attacks to “decapitate” the Iranian political and military leadership, destroy all infrastructure related to the nuclear program, and attempt to eliminate as much of the Iranian missile arsenal as possible, striking not only known launch and storage positions, but also the Iranian missile industry.
IRANIAN MISSILES ARSENAL, KEY POINT OF CONFLICT
The main issue that has caused previous attempts at an agreement to fail after the conclusion of the JCPOA (the Obama-era nuclear agreement) is precisely Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, which constitutes the only truly effective means of deterrence in the hands of the Iranian regime.
SMS FOR ATTACK ON IRAN: “TRUMP IS A MAN OF ACTION, WAIT AND YOU WILL SEE”
“The President of the United States is a man of action, wait and see.” The content of a wave of phone messages, sent in recent hours to several Iranian citizens, seems to confirm that a US attack on Iran could be a matter of hours, at most days. The sender of the messages is anonymous, but the text is clear and was distributed as the US aircraft carrier Ford, the largest in the world, is moving from Crete towards the Israeli coast.
New US supply and transport planes landed in Tel Aviv yesterday, bringing the number of aircraft sent to the Middle East to 85 and 170 respectively. India has asked its citizens to leave Iran, while dozens of staff members of the US embassy in Beirut have been evacuated, a sign that it is preparing for a wider escalation.
Everything seems ready for a military action by the United States against Iran, despite the fact that today Tehran, through the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, presents a proposal for self-limitation of the Iranian nuclear program to the Omani authorities, who are mediating in indirect negotiations with the US, in an attempt to avoid an open conflict with Washington. (CNN)