Western military intervention in Iraq and Libya did not bring a smooth transition to democracy. Although it ended brutal dictatorships in both cases, it brought years of chaos and bloodshed.
The United States appears poised to strike Iran within days. While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is not. So if a last-minute deal is not reached with Tehran and President Donald Trump decides to order American forces to strike, what could be the likely outcomes?
- TARGETED ATTACKS, MINIMAL CIVILIAN VICTIMS, A TRANSITION TOWARDS DEMOCRACY
The US air and naval forces conduct limited but precise strikes targeting military bases of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij unit – a paramilitary force under the control of the Guard – ballistic missile launch and storage sites, as well as Iran’s nuclear program. The regime collapses, ushering in a transition to democracy where Iran can join the rest of the world. This is one scenario. Western military intervention in Iraq and Libya did not bring about a smooth transition to democracy. While it ended brutal dictatorships in both cases, it brought years of chaos and bloodshed.
- THE REGIME SURVIVES BUT SOFTENS ITS POLICIES
This could be called the “Venezuelan model,” where swift and forceful U.S. action leaves the regime intact but with moderate policies. In the case of Iran, this means that the Islamic Republic survives, which would not please a majority of Iranians, but is forced to limit support for violent militias throughout the Middle East, curb its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and cease its crackdown on protests. However, this scenario is the most unlikely. The Islamic Republic’s leadership has been resistant to change for 47 years. It seems incapable of changing course now.
- THE REGIME FALLS, REPLACED BY MILITARY GOVERNMENT
Many believe this is the most likely scenario. The main reason the protests have so far failed to topple the regime is because there have been no defections from it, while those in control are prepared to use unlimited force to remain in power. So, after a US attack, it is likely that Iran will end up being led by a military government composed mainly of Revolutionary Guard figures.
- IRAN REVENS BY ATTACKING US FORCES AND NEIGHBORS
Iran has vowed to retaliate against the US in the event of an attack. It is clear that it is no match for US forces, but it can still unleash its arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones. Iran could target the critical infrastructure of any country it considers to be complicit in US attacks, such as Jordan.
- IRAN REtaliates by Laying Mines in the Persian Gulf
This has been a potential threat to global shipping and oil supplies since the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88, when Iran laid mines in shipping lanes. Iran has conducted exercises in the rapid deployment of naval mines. If it does so, it would undoubtedly have an impact on the global market and oil prices.
- IRAN REVENS BY FOUNDING AN AMERICAN WAR
In this case, Iran would launch so many explosive drones at several targets that even the powerful US Navy defenses would not be able to eliminate them in time. Sinking a US warship, and then capturing the survivors from the crew on board, would be a great humiliation for the US. Although this scenario seems highly unlikely, the multi-billion dollar destroyer USS Cole was destroyed by an Al-Qaeda suicide attack in 2000, killing 17 American personnel.
- THE REGIME COLLAPSES, BEING REPLACED BY CHAOS
This is a real risk and one of the main concerns of neighbours such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia. As well as the possibility of civil war, there is a risk that in the chaos and confusion ethnic tensions could lead to armed conflict as Kurds, Baluchis and others seek to protect their people in a power vacuum. No one would want to see the country of around 93 million people plunged into chaos that could then fuel a humanitarian and refugee crisis. The biggest risk now is that President Trump decides he must act or lose his reputation, and a war begins with no clear end and with unpredictable consequences. (BBC)