Amid the Iran-Iraq war, Al-Sharaa has exploited Syria’s strategic location to present it as a modern Silk Road, a trade hub that serves as a land-based alternative to the Straits of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb. A test of this idea is already underway, as thousands of tanker trucks loaded with oil from southern Iraq pass through Syria to the Mediterranean port of Baniyas. But for ordinary Syrians, the government’s ambitious plans have yet to yield tangible results.
In eastern Syria, a man complaining about soaring fuel prices turns from the crowd filming him on their phones and addresses the country’s interim president. “We stood with you, so stand with us,” he shouts. “I swear to God, if things don’t change between now and the New Year, the situation will turn into something we don’t want. Enough!” Security officers stand nearby as he openly criticizes the government.
What happened next is surprising: nothing. Earlier this month, thousands of Syrians took to the streets in the biggest protests since the ouster of Bashar al-Assad nearly two years ago. Unlike during his family’s 54-year police regime, where public dissent could mean prison, torture, disappearance or death, protesters were allowed to return home. The protests were widely broadcast on state media, in stark contrast to the Assad era, when state television spread disinformation to discredit the protesters, including claims that the protests were being staged from remote studios in Qatar. Syria now faces a gap between new political freedom and an economic recovery that remains frustratingly distant for ordinary citizens, many of whom are losing patience.
The latest demonstrations were sparked by the government’s surprise decision to raise fuel prices by up to 40%, which the government blamed on the global energy crisis caused by the war in Iran. As anger grew, the government rolled back some of the increases and sent the energy minister to parliament to explain and face criticism.
Analysts have praised the government’s swift response to its biggest economic test yet, but warned that it will not change the fundamentals of the country’s cost-of-living crisis. The World Bank estimates that two-thirds of Syrians live below the poverty line, on less than $3.65 a day. “We will see these protests repeated over and over again. It is almost impossible to overcome these grave economic challenges that Syrians face. It will gradually become even more difficult,” Ibrahim al-Assil, director of the Center for the Syrian Transition at Harvard’s Kennedy School, told CNN. The economic hardship is causing a growing disconnect between Syrians’ expectations of the new government and their reality.
“The honeymoon period always comes to an end. People’s expectations would rise and their patience would run out if those expectations weren’t met. That’s basically where we’ve come from,” said Charles Lister, director of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute in Washington. Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa is rushing to rebuild Syria, a task estimated at $216 billion, before patience runs out. He inherited a nearly bankrupt state, plundered by Assad and his inner circle, leaving the new regime largely dependent on foreign investment.
His strategy has been to bring the country back onto the global stage after decades of isolation, and he is now trying to translate this international momentum into tangible economic gains. “Syria has regained its position in the international community. It has been a corridor for the world. We have also built diplomatic bridges and proven to the world that Regional security must start in Damascus,” al-Sharaa told the UN General Assembly on Wednesday. Al-Sharaa’s international embrace is perhaps best embodied in his warm relationship with US President Donald Trump, with whom he has met four times since last May. The result has been the complete lifting of all US sanctions on Syria, key to unlocking foreign investment.
Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have so far attracted the bulk of foreign investment, which Syria estimated at $28 billion last year. The European Union has provided $2.7 billion in support, while French President Emmanuel Macron signed several new economic, transport and infrastructure deals during a visit to Damascus in July. According to one Syria expert, the new government has met with representatives from about 100 countries since taking power. In a show of pragmatism, Al-Sharaa maintains relations with both Russian President Vladimir Putin, a key ally of the former regime, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
STRATEGIC GEOGRAPHIC POSITION OF SYRIA
The breadth of this engagement reflects Syria’s strategic position. In a time of international division, support for Syria’s future has become one of the rare points of consensus, and the reason is largely geographical. Syria is located at the heart of the Middle East, connecting Asia and Europe through its Mediterranean ports.
This reflects the belief that, just as the Syrian civil war had repercussions far beyond its borders, triggering a migration crisis and enabling the rise of ISIS, a stable and prosperous Syria could strengthen Regional stability, encourage refugee returns, and curb extremism. Amid the war in Iran, Al-Sharaa has exploited Syria’s strategic position to present it as a modern Silk Road, a trade hub that serves as a land-based alternative to the Straits of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb. A test of this idea is already underway, as thousands of tanker trucks loaded with oil from southern Iraq pass through Syria to the Mediterranean port of Baniyas.
But for ordinary Syrians, the government’s ambitious plans have yet to yield tangible results. Lister says the international community sees a real opportunity in rebuilding Syria’s future, but it will take time. “The reality is that most of these projects are 10-year strategic projects. They won’t bring down the price of bread, they won’t bring more fuel immediately, and they won’t bring down the cost of fuel in Syria,” he said. Lister adds that the end of US sanctions has brought a wave of new small and medium-sized investment projects, which will create jobs more quickly.
“It is precisely these types of projects that offer a much greater opportunity to sow the seeds that lead to alleviation of the challenges that ordinary Syrians face,” he said. “But this will not solve these problems next week. It will probably take another year or two.”
“REVOLUTIVE” POLITICAL CAPITAL IS DRAINING
Karam Shaar, a Syrian political economist who runs a consulting firm, estimates that only 5% of the promised deals have seen concrete progress. Among the most notable are renovations of Damascus’ energy infrastructure and airport by UCC Holding, run by the influential Syrian-Qatari Al-Khayyat brothers.
“The economy is definitely recovering. But that is never the question for the average person. What matters to them is whether their livelihood is improving,” he told CNN. Syrian protester Bassam Al-Ali complained to Reuters that the government was focused on big money deals, rather than improving the cost of living. “We don’t want roundabouts. Every day they build a new roundabout that costs millions of dollars, and a shopping mall and I don’t know what else. Let your people live,” he said, addressing Al-Sharaa. “Your people were with you, they are still with you and they will remain with you, but this will make things explode,” he added.
Al-Assil warned that as economic discontent grows, the “revolutionary legitimacy” that Al-Sharaa’s government has gained could fade. “To buy people’s patience, you have to let them participate, make them feel that their voice is heard,” he added.
THE ISRAEL FACTOR
But even if the government manages to narrow the gap between international investment and improving daily life, it faces another obstacle largely beyond its control, which Al-Sharaa directly mentioned at the UN on Wednesday. “The world is happy about our return. But Israel is launching attacks on Syria,” he said. “This contradicts the direction we are seeing globally.”
He estimated that Israel has carried out nearly 500 strikes in Syria since he took power. Israel also occupies large areas of southern Syria, and Israeli officials have said the military plans to stay there indefinitely. Israel claims it does not trust Al-Sharaa and that it needs a neutral security zone to prevent terrorist attacks on its territory. Syria, weary of war, insists it does not want conflict with its neighbor. The two sides have been holding direct talks since August last year. Al-Sharaa told an Atlantic Council panel in New York on Tuesday that the negotiations “reached 90% of agreements,” until Israel pulled out for “various reasons.”
Lister says the instability caused by Israel’s actions is a major concern for investors who ask him about opportunities in Syria. “If the Israelis continue with their current stance after the elections there (in October), then foreign investment in Syria will become increasingly unlikely, because they are holding a big hammer over Damascus’ head,” he said. “This particular issue is as central to questions about economic recovery as sanctions, investment prospects and small and medium-sized enterprises. Israel is just as important,” Lister added. (CNN)