Over the years, many names have been mentioned as possible successors to Khamenei, but currently, three candidates are considered the main favorites: Mojtaba Khamenei, Alireza Arafi and Hassan Khomeini.
For the first time in 36 years, Iran is in a position to elect a new supreme leader. This has happened only once before, in 1989, when the death of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, paved the way for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to take over. Khomeini died of natural causes, while Khamenei was assassinated on the first day of joint US-Israeli military strikes against Iran, on February 28. Now, Iran’s 88-member Assembly of Experts is set to meet in secret to elect his successor.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, tells Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that whoever is elected will be chosen on a single criterion: political suitability. According to him, the Assembly of Experts is now a “decision-making body,” and the process is driven more by circumstances than by the candidates’ prior preparation. Many names have been mentioned over the years as possible successors to Khamenei, but currently, three candidates are considered the main favorites.
MOJTABA KHAMENEI: THE CHOICE FROM THE DYNASTY
The 56-year-old second son of the late supreme leader has long been described as a “gatekeeper.” Although he has never held a formal government post, the younger Khamenei has spent two decades in his father’s office, coordinating between the clerical establishment and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It is believed that he is backed by the IRGC and that his selection would be a continuation of his father’s policy. Supporters also argue that his close proximity to the security apparatus makes him the only candidate capable of maintaining order during an active conflict.
However, his elevation to this post risks causing internal anger, especially among the Islamic Republic’s core supporters.
Critics argue that the move toward “hereditary rule” runs counter to the very anti-monarchist roots of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. “The image that emerges when a son succeeds his father is somewhat like a monarchy,” Farzan Sabet, a senior fellow at the Geneva Graduate School, told Radio Free Europe in 2024. A member of the Assembly of Experts said in 2024 that the elder Khamenei had opposed the idea of his son succeeding him. Moreover, the relatively low clerical rank of the younger Khamenei, Hojatoleslam, is also a matter of debate.
Recent investigations, including a Bloomberg report published in late January, have uncovered a series of real estate assets linked to the new Khamenei, who has been under US sanctions since 2019. Reports suggest that he has managed to maintain and expand a global network of luxury assets through intermediaries and shell companies.
ALIREZA ARAFI: THE SAFE CHOICE
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, 67, is considered a “typical man of the system.” He currently serves on the three-member Provisional Leadership Council. Arafi has climbed every institutional ladder — from heading the global Al-Mustafa University to leading the entire system of religious seminaries in Iran. He entered the political arena in 2019, when he was appointed by Khamenei to the position of one of six clerics on the powerful Guardian Council.
Arafi is seen as a safe institutional choice. He meets the necessary clerical credentials and has served as a loyal administrator – without being publicly linked to domestic protest violence. According to Vatanka, Arafi’s rise was no accident. He says Khamenei’s willingness to appoint him to important roles “shows that he had a lot of confidence in his bureaucratic skills.” He describes Arafi as a “capable soldier of the system” who is likely to put the survival of the Islamic Republic ahead of personal charisma. Compared to figures like the head of the judiciary, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, who Vatanka says has “a lot of blood on his hands,” Arafi is presented as an administrator with a cleaner reputation who could have the support of the IRGC “for the sake of continuity.”
Although he is well-known in religious circles, he is far from a household name among most Iranians. He lacks a personal power base and may find it difficult to secure the absolute loyalty of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
HASSAN KHOMEINI: THE LAST CARD
Hassan Khomeini, 53, is the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ruhollah Khomeini. A more moderate cleric with close ties to the reformist camp, he has long been overshadowed by the hardliners. But his name has been mentioned as a possible candidate, especially after US President Donald Trump said he would prefer a “more moderate” leader in Tehran. For a clerical system whose legitimacy is waning and facing international isolation, Hassan Khomeini could be a game changer. He is linked to reformist circles and has advocated greater social freedoms and reduced diplomatic tensions.
However, he is not liked by the regime’s hardline stance. In a speech in 2022, the boos and heckles from the audience against him became so loud that Ali Khamenei rebuked those who were obstructing him when he took the stage after him. The fact that in 2016, the Guardian Council disqualified him from running for election to the Assembly of Experts indicates that the IRGC would only accept him if the Islamic Republic were on the verge of complete collapse.
“SAVE WHAT’S LEFT”
Vatanka says that whoever takes power under these circumstances will have little chance of carrying out any major missions. Taking control of a country under military attack, with a tired population and a weakened economy, would force even a dedicated ideologue to act with pragmatism, he says. “Now is not the time to delve deeper. Now is the time to end this war, to reorganize and to preserve what is left of the country,” Vatanka concludes. (RFE)