Developments in the region, and especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have made Turkey so important to European governments that they cannot afford to speak out against the domestic repression, which has increased in recent years and led to the arrest of many opposition party politicians. The country’s authoritarian slide is therefore not expected to be a central topic at the NATO summit to be held in Ankara on July 6-7, “perhaps the most important in the history of the alliance.”
It wasn’t long ago that Turkey was considered a problem within NATO, yet today the allies seem never to tire of underlining its strategic position. What role can the country play now that Washington’s support seems uncertain?
First, among NATO countries, Ankara has the second largest army after the United States: approximately 370 thousand soldiers. Moreover, it has several NATO bases on its territory, where troops and radar systems are deployed. In March 2026, NATO’s importance to Turkish security also became clear, when several ballistic missiles launched from Iran towards Turkey were shot down by the Atlantic alliance’s air defense system. Ankara is worried about a future of NATO without the United States, but at the same time it sees opportunities, explains Riccardo Gasco, foreign policy coordinator at the IstanPol think tank. “It thinks it can fill the void that Washington would leave, but on the other hand it cannot fully take on that role: just think of the nuclear umbrella or the operational military capabilities.”
Turkey is a middle power with regional ambitions, not a global superpower like the United States. According to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, discussions are currently underway on how to prevent a US withdrawal from the European security architecture, or at least how to limit its consequences. “Even a partial withdrawal would be devastating for Europe if it were not done in a coordinated manner,” he declared in mid-April.
Which side is Turkey on? Not all European NATO members are enthusiastic about the idea of a greater role for Turkey. A delicate issue remains the S-400 air defense system, which Ankara purchased from Russia in 2017, a country considered NATO’s main adversary. Talks are reportedly underway to return the system to Russia, but the issue has not yet been resolved. Furthermore, Turkey is not part of the European Union and, as a result, does not participate in the European defense fund SAFE (Security Action for Europe). Greece and Cyprus even see a militarily stronger Turkey as a threat.
All of this creates a somewhat contradictory message. “Given the changing geopolitical reality in Europe and the Middle East, we need Turkey,” declared European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, on April 21.
According to her, Ankara is “essential” for trade routes and relations with Ukraine. “But,” Kos added, “we also expect it to take steps to get closer to us and to Cyprus.” The Cyprus issue, the island divided between the Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, occupied and recognized only by Ankara, is not expected to be resolved soon. Meanwhile, several European countries are initiating bilateral agreements with Turkey. Gasco cites, for example, the cooperation between the Italian company Leonardo and the Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar. If this initiative succeeds, Turkey’s status as a reliable partner in the defense sector will be further strengthened, the analyst predicts.
Developments in the region, and especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have made Turkey so important to European governments that they cannot afford to speak out against the domestic repression, which has increased in recent years and has led to the arrest of many opposition party politicians. The country’s authoritarian slide is therefore not expected to be a central topic at the NATO summit to be held in Ankara on July 6-7, “perhaps the most important in the history of the alliance,” according to Minister Fidan. He also expects US President Donald Trump to attend: “Out of personal respect for our head of state, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.”