Migration can alleviate short-term labor shortages, but it is not the only solution and raises ethical questions. Ultimately, demographic changes occur slowly but affect every aspect of society, from schools to hospitals and intergenerational relationships. The key question is whether societies will continue to ignore these changes, or will they begin to cope with and adapt to them.
In Japan, there are now companies that specialize in cleaning the apartments of elderly people who have died alone and are discovered weeks or months later, while sales of adult diapers have exceeded sales of baby diapers for more than a decade.
In Italy, emptying villages are selling houses for €1 to attract new residents and keep services running. In the UK, falling student numbers are already leading to school and classroom closures in parts of London. These are not isolated curiosities, but signs of a wider shift taking place in many developed countries. “In the EU in 2024, 21 out of 27 countries had more deaths than births,” said Prof. Sarah Harper, director of the Oxford Institute on Population Ageing. In Asia and the Americas too, from Japan and South Korea to Cuba and Uruguay, many countries are seeing the same pattern.
This reflects two long-term demographic changes: people are living longer and the average number of children they have is falling. In the United Kingdom, the latest projections show that from 2026 deaths will outnumber births every year, as fertility declines and the aging of the large baby boom generation. The population is still expected to grow temporarily, but more slowly, peaking at around 72.5 million in 2054, before gradually falling.
“Although the point at which deaths exceed births is emotionally significant, it is part of a long process,” said Dr Paul Morland, a demographer. Life expectancy has been rising since the late 18th century, while fertility has been falling since the late 19th century. “There is a point where these two lines intersect,” he said.
The reasons why people are having fewer children are complex. A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is needed to replace the population. In the UK, this figure is 1.44. “The recent decline in fertility is particularly pronounced in those under 30, indicating that births are being postponed,” said Prof Melanie Channon from the University of Bath. “But even taking this postponement into account, fertility is still falling.” These changes are already being felt. Sectors that care for children, such as maternity homes, schools and childcare, are facing a drop in demand. Some schools are closing, while businesses such as play centres are struggling. Midwifery training is also being affected, as students must complete a minimum number of births.
The effects extend even further. Working parents, often mothers, may be forced to quit their jobs or reduce their working hours, affecting the economy and gender equality.
Meanwhile, longer life expectancy is bringing about an “aging” of the population. Older populations tend to be less risk-averse, reducing investment in innovation and slowing economic growth. Pressure on public finances is increasing, with fewer workers having to support more pensions, health and social care. Consumption is also changing, with young people buying more products, while older people are demanding more care services that are not easily automated. Many developed countries face these challenges, but fertility declines are also occurring in countries with lower economic development, such as parts of Latin America, Jamaica, Thailand and some states in India.
“There are countries that will get older before they get richer,” Morland said. Historically, declining birth rates have followed rising incomes and urbanization. Today, fertility is falling faster than economic growth, driven by social change and aspirations.
However, the pattern is not the same everywhere. Israel maintains high birth rates, while the United Kingdom has a strong “two-child” policy. Migration helps offset the decline in birth rates, but it does not solve the long-term problem, as migrants also age. Demographic projections are not fixed and can be affected by policies or unexpected changes. The main challenge is not just whether the trend can be reversed, but how societies will adapt. Many structures, the labor market, pensions, the health system, are built for a changing demographic reality.
Experts stress that it is not enough to tell people to have more children. Solutions must focus on adaptation: more flexible pensions, longer working lives, fighting age discrimination and supporting lifelong learning.
Although increasing birth rates is difficult to encourage, policies such as affordable childcare and parental leave can help families have the children they want. Migration can alleviate short-term labor shortages, but it is not the only solution and also raises ethical questions. Ultimately, demographic changes occur slowly but affect every aspect of society, from schools to hospitals to intergenerational relationships. The key question is whether societies will continue to ignore these changes, or will they begin to cope with and adapt to them.