Vladimir Putin is demanding that the Ukrainian army withdraw from Donbas. But why is Donbas so important to Putin?
These are still unconfirmed media reports, but they are causing heated debate in the US and Europe: Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump have agreed at their summit in Alaska that Ukraine will hand over the Donetsk and Luhansk Regions to Russia. But can such a step be imposed on Ukraine? Putin’s demand is that the Ukrainian armed forces completely withdraw from the Donbas Region. In return, the Russian president offers to freeze combat operations along the remaining front line – especially in the Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions, where Russian troops also hold significant territory.
CLOSENESS WITH RUSSIA
Putin has repeatedly stressed the importance of the Donetsk and Luhansk Regions, which together make up the so-called Donbas. According to him, the Region has historical ties to Russia and the legacy of the Soviet Union. However, this territory legally belongs to Ukraine, and this was not even disputed during the Soviet era. While the Crimean peninsula was given to Ukraine in 1954 by then-Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev – a fact that is still disputed in Russia – the Donetsk and Luhansk Regions have been part of Ukraine since the founding of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1919. And this has long been considered indisputable.
At the same time, Donbass has always been characterized by Russian influence. Since the 19th century, and then during the Soviet era, it was considered an industrial core rich in natural resources.
During the boom years of coal mining, steel and chemical industries, many people from all over the USSR, and especially from Russia, went there in search of work. Thus, even before 2014, the majority of the population there spoke Russian; while citizens in the western parts of the country wanted stronger ties with the European Union than with Moscow, this part of eastern Ukraine remained largely pro-Russian. Viktor Yanukovych, the former Ukrainian president close to the Kremlin, was born in Donetsk and had the strongest support in that Region.
DONBAS, AN OBSTACLE SINCE 2014
When Yanukovych was overthrown in the midst of the Maidan Revolution in 2014 and fled to Moscow, Donbass eventually became a bone of contention between Moscow and Kiev. Moscow then annexed the Crimean peninsula, while unrest began to spread throughout eastern Ukraine. Armed groups, backed by Russian weapons and fighters, declared so-called “people’s republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk. Moscow expected Russian-speaking Ukrainians to support this, but this expectation turned out to be an illusion. The separatist war in eastern Ukraine was met with rejection. In the 2019 Ukrainian presidential election, voters overwhelmingly supported Volodymyr Zelensky – even in the parts of eastern Ukraine that remained under Kiev’s control.
Zelensky himself grew up speaking Russian, and his stance that he wanted to end the conflict without giving up Ukraine’s sovereignty was widely supported. Donbas was Vladimir Putin’s main motivation for the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. He claimed that the self-proclaimed “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk had asked Moscow for help, justifying his “special military operation” in Ukraine. He also claimed that the Russian-speaking population of the parts of eastern Ukraine under Kiev’s control were facing “genocide.” These claims have not been proven to date.
WHY DOES SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE HAVE GREAT GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE?
Today, all of Luhansk and about 70 percent of Donetsk are under Russian control. This means that about 88 percent of all Donbass is under Russian occupation. It is estimated that more than four million people live in these two Regions. There are not only coal and ore there, but also large reserves of lithium, cobalt, titanium and rare earth minerals that are key to the production of important technological goods. For Russia, both areas are also of strategic importance due to their land connection to Crimea. The peninsula is accessible from Russian territory only via the so-called Kerch Bridge. If Donbass were to become part of Russia, and the front line in the Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions were to be “lifted” – meaning that they would remain under Russian occupation – Crimea would be accessible to Russia by land as well. This would permanently cut off Ukraine from the Sea of Azov – the part of the Black Sea between Crimea and Russia.
DONBAS AS A UKRAINIAN FORTIFICATION GENERATION
For Ukraine, Donbass is also of great importance – and not only economically. In the parts that are still under Kiev’s control, Ukraine has formed a so-called fortified belt. This is the most important defensive line that prevents Russia from penetrating deeper into central Ukraine. These are several key cities and fortified positions – Kramatorsk, Slavyansk or Konstantinovka – which Ukraine is tenaciously holding on to despite heavy losses. Behind this defensive belt are the vast, open plains of central Ukraine, which without a defensive line would be extremely vulnerable to new Russian attacks and offensives.
Therefore, for Ukrainian President Zelensky, the handover of the remaining parts of Donbas is out of the question – unless there are broad and strong security guarantees. But it would be almost impossible for Zelensky to implement this handover at the domestic political level. On the one hand, the country’s constitution prohibits him from doing so. On the other hand, such a move would be extremely unpopular in Ukraine: according to a poll by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, about 75 percent of Ukrainians reject territorial concessions to Russia. (DW)