Russia has not committed all its human and economic resources. Putin has not declared a general mobilization. The front is mostly volunteers, and about 30 people are recruited each month, attracted by very high salaries and benefit packages. Exports of raw materials have kept the arms industry alive, without reducing public spending in other sectors or raising taxes. This has helped the Kremlin maintain, so far, the internal consensus
By La Reppublica
Today is a symbolic date, which helps to better understand the war in Ukraine and, above all, to overthrow the narrative of Russia’s invincibility, also fueled by Donald Trump. A full 1,415 days have passed since the beginning of the invasion ordered by Vladimir Putin, exactly the same duration as the Second World War for the Soviet Union. The German attack on the Soviet Union began on June 22, 1941 and ended on May 7, 1945 with the unconditional capitulation of the Third Reich. Within that time frame, the Red Army retreated fighting to the gates of Moscow, then, after the Battle of Stalingrad, went on the offensive, occupied Berlin and took control of all of Eastern Europe, from Bulgaria to the Baltic Republics.
WHERE IS THE WAR IN UKRAINE LOCATING TODAY?
Today, the Kremlin tries to evoke those historic successes by talking about a “new patriotic war,” a term that has replaced the more technical definition of “special military operation.” But the comparison with the reality on the ground is merciless. In nearly four years of fighting, Russia has occupied Mariupol and the coast of the Sea of Azov, as well as some lowland areas of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Regions. However, even the initial objective of “liberating” Donbass has not been achieved. Ukrainian forces continue to resist in the last bastions of Donetsk, and the fall of Pokrovsk, announced by the Russian president on December 1, has not yet materialized.
A HARSH COMPARISON IN FIGURES
The data speaks for itself. In the initial spring 2022 offensive, Russian troops captured about 119 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Kiev’s counteroffensive by December had recaptured over 74 square kilometers. After a largely defensive 2023, Russia resumed its advance in 2024, capturing 4.168 square kilometers, and another 4.700 the following year. The total is 53.868 square kilometers – roughly the area of Lombardy, Piedmont, and Liguria combined. In the same period, Stalin’s Army lost and regained 1,6 million square kilometers of Soviet territory and then drove German forces from 1,1 million square kilometers of Eastern Europe.
BALANCE SHEET OF VICTIMS: YESTERDAY AND TODAY
The Soviet victory over Nazism came at a colossal human cost: some 27 million dead, of whom nearly 18 million were civilians. This translates to about 10 casualties for every square kilometer, or about three soldiers killed per square kilometer, if military losses alone are counted. Today, estimates of Russian losses in Ukraine range from 250 to 350 soldiers killed. That means between five and seven killed for every square kilometer of Ukraine taken, an indication of the extreme brutality of the fighting, with a lethality rate that, according to observers, has increased in recent months.
THE KREMLIN’S DIFFICULTIES
These figures do not have full statistical value, because the nature of the two conflicts is very different. The total war of 1939–1945, which devastated the European continent, is fortunately not being repeated, although the number of destroyed cities and villages in the Donbass continues to grow. However, the parallelism of 1,415 days highlights Russia’s difficulties on the ground, despite occupying a much smaller, less populated and less wealthy country. And it is not only Western military aid that has stopped Moscow’s advance, American aid has been cut off since last June, but above all the determination and organization of Ukraine.
WHAT PUTIN HAS NOT DONE YET
In this comparison, one key factor must be taken into account: Russia has not committed all its human and economic resources. Putin has not declared a general mobilization. The front is mainly volunteers, and about 30 people are recruited every month, attracted by very high salaries and benefit packages. Exports of raw materials have kept the arms industry alive, without reducing public spending in other sectors or raising taxes. This has helped the Kremlin maintain, so far, the internal consensus. But the new year is expected to be problematic: the fall in oil prices, American measures against Russian oil smuggling, the increase in state debt and the cost of the army are weighing on finances, to the point that new taxes have been imposed for the first time.
A WAR THAT MUST BE STOPPED
The suffering of Ukraine is visible to all. The bombing of the power grid has turned winter into a nightmare, while the human losses, according to the BBC about 140 thousand soldiers killed, are wiping out an entire generation. After 1 thousand 415 days, this massacre needs to stop. But, so far, no one has found the formula for a “just peace”.