President Zelensky is aware of this grim scenario and is trying to find alternatives. His main priority is finding new arms suppliers to prolong the resistance as much as possible. At the same time, the Ukrainian government is looking for suppliers that can immediately replace American aid.
Experts have been ruthless in their assessment. With Donald Trump’s arms embargo, Ukraine may have only six more months of war left. By the end of the summer, the Ukrainian army will be able to continue fighting at the current pace. After that, if the decision is confirmed and supplies from Washington do not resume or if alternative sources are not found, Kiev’s forces could be at a standstill. President Zelensky is aware of this grim scenario and is trying to find alternatives. His main priority is finding new arms suppliers to prolong the resistance as long as possible. At the same time, the Ukrainian government is looking for suppliers who can immediately replace American aid.
MAIN PROBLEM
Attention has immediately turned to the European Union, Norway and the United Kingdom. But the main challenge is that none of these actors can provide supplies at the same level as Washington. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, in 2024, Brussels, London and Oslo gave Ukraine $25 billion in military aid, almost on par with the United States. But this aid cannot completely replace American aid. Although the European Commission is trying to increase ammunition production, not every American weapon can be easily replaced with European-made alternatives. Systems such as the Patriot, Himars and Abrams tanks are almost irreplaceable at the moment.
UKRAINIAN FORCES MUST CONSERVE AMMUNITION
Western intelligence has warned that Moscow could launch a major offensive if it sees Western aid dwindling. In this context, Kiev is increasing its military production capacity, aiming to produce one million artillery shells per year. However, this is not a quick fix and the shortage of weapons remains a serious risk.
EUROPE’S NEW PLAN
Several European countries are accelerating the adoption of a new aid package for Ukraine. A draft decision of the European Council was discussed yesterday, proposing significant financial assistance to Kiev. According to Politico, Western intelligence services believe that Russia could accelerate attacks to take advantage of this moment of weakness. If arms supplies are further reduced, Ukrainian defense forces could be significantly reduced.