Nuclear disarmament diplomacy is at a global impasse. Consensus on future collective action is expected to elude again at the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference in April in New York.
By Simon TISDALL
Keir Starmer’s cautious turn to the Dragon Throne has worked in Beijing, though not in Trumpland. That’s partly because, like so many other insecure Western leaders, the British prime minister has avoided embarrassing topics like human rights abuses, the Jimmy Lai farce, espionage and Taiwan. But in talks with President Xi Jinping, one vital issue was completely avoided and should not have been avoided: China’s dangerous, inexplicable, secret and rapid build-up of nuclear weapons. More than the climate crisis, global hunger, the Prussian militarism of Kaiser Trump and the ever-increasing threat of pandemics, the unchecked spread of weapons of mass destruction is the most immediate and existential threat to humanity. Last week, the Doomsday Clock was raised to 85 seconds to midnight – closer to Armageddon than ever before. “Nuclear and other global risks are escalating rapidly and in unprecedented ways,” watchdogs warned, via the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Nuclear disarmament diplomacy is at a global impasse. Consensus on future collective action is expected to elude again at the April review conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in New York. On Thursday, New Start—the last remaining arms control treaty limiting the strategic nuclear forces of the United States and Russia—expires. Meanwhile, a frightening international nuclear arms race is raging unchecked, as detailed in the 2025 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Almost all nine nuclear-weapon states—the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel—are pursuing “intensive nuclear modernization programs,” SIPRI reported, including new weapons such as hypersonic missiles and low-yield tactical weapons deemed “usable.” Nuclear testing could resume soon. “Of the global inventory of about 12,241 nuclear warheads in January 2025, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for possible use,” SIPRI said. Of these, the United States and Russia hold about 90 percent.
With an estimated 600 nuclear warheads, China lags behind – but it is closing the gap rapidly. “China’s nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country, with around 100 new warheads a year from 2023 … It could potentially have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as Russia or the US by the end of the decade,” SIPRI estimated. Beijing offers no explanation or justification for this dramatic increase – and rejects multilateral arms control talks. An official white paper, published by China in November, reiterated its position that countries with the largest nuclear arsenals should take the first step, unilaterally making “drastic and substantial reductions”. Until then, the document said, China would keep its nuclear potential “at the minimum level required for national security”. The document, of course, did not specify what that level is.
China’s criticism is accurate – albeit laden with hypocrisy – that the US and others are flouting their NPT commitments to pursue disarmament. It has a stronger case to make when it opposes Donald Trump’s plan for a multi-layered missile shield linked to Greenland – the so-called Golden Dome – which, if it ever materializes, could seriously upset the balance of fear. Despite its current advantages, the US is concerned. The Pentagon warned in December that “China’s historic military build-up has made the US homeland increasingly vulnerable.” It highlighted what it called a nuclear-ready posture, and claimed that about 100 ICBMs had recently been installed in northern China. It also said Beijing was testing its ability “to strike US forces in the Pacific,” which could potentially hinder future US military assistance to Taiwan. “China expects to be able to fight and win the war for Taiwan by the end of 2027,” the Pentagon said.
What is Xi aiming for? China’s push to expand its nuclear arsenal may be purely a matter of status. Perhaps Xi wants to match (or surpass) the US and Russia. Perhaps he genuinely fears a potential attack. He told Starmer that “unchecked” powers, referring to Trump, were following “the law of the jungle.” Or perhaps, thinking about his legacy, Xi believes that a display of nuclear force (or something more serious) could help him conquer Taiwan and fulfill his ambition to make China a major superpower. Xi has acquired almost imperial power after 13 years in power. But he is also an uncertain, fallible and unimaginative politician, sensitive to global trends and pressures. On the one hand, he sees Trump’s US upgrading nuclear weapons, scrapping key arms control agreements like the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and attacking – at will – non-nuclear-weapon states like Iran and Venezuela. On the other, he sees his fellow ally and dictator, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, threatening nuclear war on the West while attempting to illegally invade Ukraine. Understandably, the temptation to follow suit may be great.
Also worrying is the idea that, despite appearances, Xi may not have full control over China’s armed forces. His sensational dismissal last week of General Zhang Youxia – his second-in-command in the military hierarchy – remains a mystery. Zhang, a seasoned veteran, is reportedly accused of disloyalty to his less experienced boss – and of leaking nuclear secrets to the US. Is it possible that the two men had disagreements over Xi’s confrontational and aggressive policies on nuclear weapons and Taiwan? Xi has previously purged the commanders of the missile force, but he still seems to be struggling to bring the generals into line. In an echo of the Cold War, Dr. Strangelove’s disturbing question returns: who has his finger on the button?
Whatever the Chinese president thinks, these are alarming times for anyone concerned about a global thermonuclear war – which should be everyone’s concern. Starmer’s talks with China reportedly included Chinese threats to the UK’s national security. What greater threat is there than the spread of nuclear weapons? Yet, as far as is known, he did not raise the issue. Starmer’s silence is not surprising. Under his leadership, the UK is also expanding its nuclear strike force, buying US F-35A fighter jets that are capable of carrying nuclear weapons. And, it is said to be allowing the US to store nuclear bombs at the Royal Air Force base at Lakenheath – for the first time in 20 years. Britain is in no position to criticize. On the contrary, its unspoken message to China is clear: bombs ready!