By Mike Eckel
Southeast of the besieged Ukrainian city of Kupyansk lies the small town of Kupyansk-Vuzlovi.
In November 2025, the top commander of the Russian army claimed that Kupyansk had fallen into their hands.
It wasn’t true.
In fact, Ukrainian military troops had been working on a counteroffensive and now appear to be driving the last Russian soldiers out of the city.
Last week, the same commander, General Valery Gerasimov, said that Russian forces had taken control of Kupyansk-Vuzlov.
According to Russian and Ukrainian battlefield observers, the real situation was this: Russian forces were far from the village – about 10 kilometers – and not even close to controlling it.
Weeks into the war’s fifth year, Russia is successfully striking Ukraine’s power grid and many heating centers, leaving Ukrainian citizens in freezing temperatures. But Moscow is not scoring any convincing victories on the battlefield.
Moscow’s military forces are battling Ukrainian defenses in several areas along a 1.100-kilometer-long front. But their movement is very slow, perhaps the slowest in any modern war, according to a study. And that reality is coming at a cost.
“The warfront is best described as ‘dynamic stagnation’ meaning intense fighting with marginal geographic changes,” said Ivan Torres, a retired U.S. Army major who now works as a senior Russian military analyst at the political research group Rochan Consulting.
Ukraine’s fatigue is also attributed to the US-backed peace talks, which have made progress, but disagreements on a host of issues continue to be an obstacle.
“Ukraine is not losing and Russia is not winning,” the Royal United Services Institute, based in London, has assessed.
Below we have listed the main Regions that deserve attention:
KUPIANSKU
The city is known for being an important railway junction and has faced war several times so far: Russia occupied it after the start of the war in February 2022. Then, Ukrainian forces took control of Russian positions in September, and reached as far as Oskil.
However, for more than a year, Russian forces – more in numbers, with more weapons – have been approaching Kupyansk again.
In September, Russian units penetrated through the disused underground gas pipelines of Oskil and reached the outskirts of Kupyansk in the north. In doing so, they infiltrated small groups of soldiers deep inside the city.
Local authorities then raised the alarm and Ukrainian commanders engaged specialized drone companies, and before the New Year, Ukrainian units pushed back Russian positions.
However, bad weather in the last eight weeks has affected the performance of Ukrainian soldiers in removing all Russian soldiers from those areas.
Russian forces, on the other hand, are not giving up; they are constantly trying to break the Ukrainian blockades and retake the city.
“A complete cleanup of Kupjansk seems difficult, but the Russians have lost momentum,” said Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst at the research organization Black Bird Group.
“I don’t expect major changes in the future in that area,” he told Radio Free Europe.
“It is possible that Ukraine will lose positions east of the Oskil River at some point, but that does not mean that the Russians will advance far inland.”
KOSTIANNIVKA
Another important town for railway junctions and army supplies, Kostiantynivka, has been under great threat since Russian soldiers managed to drive Ukrainian forces out of Chasiv Yar last year.
This result gave the Russians an advantage. Chasiv Yar is located at a higher elevation, allowing the Russians to bombard the Ukrainian defenses from above.
Pressing in from the south and southwest, Russian troops are now targeting several key road links leading to Kramatorsk. This city, along with Sloviansk, are two key points through which Ukrainians defend the parts of Donetsk Region they still hold.
“Kostiantinivka could be on the list of major Russian operations,” Torres said.
“These areas are very problematic for Ukraine. Russian forces have spent months trying to establish logistical centers. The fighting there is characterized by rapid infantry attacks aimed at tiring Ukrainian defenders, rather than a deep penetration.”
POKROVSKU AND MIRNOHRAD
Once a key logistical hub for Ukrainian defense in the Donetsk Region, Pokrovske has been in ruins for months, as small Ukrainian units have gradually infiltrated the city. The strategy has worked, and Russian soldiers now control about 80-90 percent of the city. Ukrainian commanders are struggling to hold onto lines of control in the northwest.
The fall of Pokrovsk to the Russians would also endanger other Ukrainian positions, including those around the town of Mirnohrad, which is largely under Russian control.
Ukrainian soldiers have said that Russian units have moved heavy equipment into the town and now have a command area.
“Russian forces control most of both cities, although Ukrainian resistance may still be noticeable in some places, the cities can be considered lost,” said Kastehelmi, who has just returned from a trip to Ukraine.
HULJAPOLE AND ORIHIVI
In Hulyaypole, southwest of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian defenses depend on the Khaychur River, which divides the town into zones. Experts have warned that Russian forces have overrun several areas across the river and consolidated their positions, and that Ukrainians are trying to prevent further advances.
Some experts have said that Ukrainian defenses may have been weakened due to depleted forces and commanders’ decisions to shift all resources to seize Kupyansk in the north.
“The fall of Hujlapole was an unfortunate event, but the Russians did not advance much beyond it,” said Kastehelmi.
The loss of Khuljaypole is problematic because the western area is a relatively open steppe that has no defensive lines and can be easily crossed by armored vehicles. This would open the door for Russian units to increase pressure westward toward Orikhiv, a larger city about 70 kilometers away.
“The capture of this city and the breach of the Ukrainian defense along the Khajchur River threaten the sustainability of Ukraine’s defense of Orikhiv,” Torres estimates.
KAMIANSK AND ZAPORIZHYA
Much less attention – Ukrainian or Russian – has been paid to the gradual advance of Russian soldiers on the banks of what was once the Kakhovka reservoir on the Dnieper River. The Kakhovka dam was destroyed while it was under Russian control in June 2023.
At the end of December 2025, Russian troops managed to penetrate the town of Kamianske, towards the Regional capital, Zaporizhia.
“They could cause more problems in the coming months if they manage to take the city in small pieces,” Kastehelmi estimates.
“In the medium and long term, the situation in Zaporizhia could be heading in a worrying direction, but some local and tactical obstacles now do not mean that the overall situation is heading towards a major crisis.” (RFE)