Donald Trump’s first year in office has been marked by budget cuts, controversy and few limits from Congress. Polls show his approval rating is near an all-time low.
The latest Pew Research poll, released Thursday, found that 37% — just over a third of Americans — approve of Trump’s performance. Gallup’s last update in December put him at 36%, with a 59% disapproval rating. Those numbers aren’t good for any leader, in any country, but Trump, whose actions during his first year in office, both domestically and internationally, have been controversial, is not entirely unpopular. What’s dragging down his approval rating is his image among Democratic supporters, who are unlikely to switch their votes to either Trump or the Republican Party. Trump enjoys single-digit support among Democratic voters.
On the other hand, his support among Republicans remains positive. Although it has fallen since the beginning of his term, more than half still appear to support his approach, according to Pew.
TRUMP CONTINUES TO LEAD A HYPERPARTISAN AMERICA
Despite the national numbers, Trump’s grip on the Republican Party remains significant, mainly as the emblematic figure of the MAGA movement, which evangelizes its long-held mantra of “America First.” “We have a president who, historically, lacks support,” John Mark Hansen, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, told DW. “The support he has seems to be rock-solid: there seems to be nothing that could possibly turn back 80-85% of Republican voters.”
Trump has been able to govern his first year virtually unopposed thanks to Republican control of the US Congress and a 2024 Supreme Court ruling that grants broad immunity to the presidency. That could change after the November midterm elections, in which all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate are up for grabs. While he has implemented the sweeping tariffs and tough immigration policies he promised during his campaign, his promise to curb inflation, improve the cost of living and boost the economy overall remains to be seen. “A president’s popularity is never higher than in his first year,” Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, an expert on the presidency and Congress at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, told DW. “Over time, a president’s popularity tends to decline, in part because he has made extravagant promises that he cannot deliver. And at the same time, in the case of President Trump, I think what has happened is that Americans are very concerned about the economic situation and the state of their wallets,” she said.
Support from moderate voters who don’t identify as Republican or Democrat, who helped propel Trump to the White House, has also fallen. According to Gallup data from December, only one in four independents approved of Trump’s performance. While issues such as his aggressive — now deadly — approach to immigration raids in urban areas may anger left-leaning voters, Tenpas said these traditional Trump strengths could alienate centrist Americans and the moderate right. “Certainly, many Democrats are particularly concerned about what’s happening in Minnesota and other cities across the country where ICE is deployed,” Tenpas said. “As for independents and perhaps Republicans who are not loyal to Trump, I think they’re becoming increasingly dissatisfied with what’s happening.”
Republicans currently control the House and Senate, but a referendum on Trump would worry their allies in Congress that a dozen undecided key races between Republican and Democratic candidates could swing in favor of his opponents and cause him to lose control of the House.
INTERVENTIONS IN THE OUTSIDE WORLD ARE UNLIKELY TO ATTRACT THE ATTENTION OF VOTERS
After a year in office, Trump has shown that he is still capable of irritating his international counterparts and leaving the world order in a precarious state. His tariffs have rattled global trade, his cuts to foreign aid have reversed decades of progress in international development, and his attacks on Iran and his actions against the former president of Venezuela have further inflamed public opinion. Trump’s actions have surprised those who see him as the emblematic figure of an isolationist America, and his proposal to annex Greenland and Canada as U.S. territory has angered his staunch allies. Images of ICE raids carried out by his administration have also drawn global attention. But observers say those issues pale in comparison to the overarching domestic concerns that are likely to take center stage ahead of the midterm elections. Trump has rarely been swayed by unpopular perceptions outside the United States. Domestically, he has been more flexible, as evidenced by his recent rhetoric about “de-escalating” ICE raids.
TRUMP WILL “EXTEND” AFTER DEADLY SHOOTING IN MINNEAPOLIS
“Almost always, the economy is the number one issue,” said Todd Belt, a political scientist at George Washington University, adding that there is one exception. “To the extent that foreign policy is going to affect the midterm elections, the fact that the current administration is focusing on other issues instead of domestic issues is damaging its image.” Tenpas agrees, but he said that domestic immigration raids could also sway voters: “I think events like the ones in Minnesota, Chicago, Los Angeles, sending in troops, ICE, are more memorable in the minds of voters.” What seems clear is that, a year into office and a little over 10 months before the midterm elections, Trump has plenty of time to change the narrative. “The election is still a long way off, and Americans’ opinions […] about policy are fluid,” Belt said. “What’s news one day may not be news the next.” “And the president is a master of distraction, which works in his favor, because even though we’re talking about immigration now, in October we could be talking about something very different,” he added. (DW)