In the next 18 months, there is a possibility, which is not small, that Milorad Dodik, Aleksandar Vučić, and Viktor Orbán will transform from giants to dwarfs, from condors to hummingbirds.
By Petar ARSOVSKI
In the history of a Region, changes, most often (after we have successfully spent several centuries deceiving our states) are painful, slow, laborious, and often require generations to bring about truly transformative impacts in the societies in which we live so unsuccessfully. But every now and then, a kind of coincidence – perhaps even cosmic – of circumstances occurs, which can cause tectonic changes in a short period of time, a kind of quantum leap in the fate of more nations. Without much noise, in the shadow of the smoke that we are currently inhaling, out of sight, but I believe that over the next 18 months there are trends that signal that perhaps the time has come for such a thing in the Region. Within the next 18 months, there is a possibility – which is not small – that Milorad Dodik, Aleksandar Vučić and Viktor Orbán will transform from giants to dwarfs, from condors to hummingbirds. These three leaders, who have been shaping the political scene of the Balkans and Central Europe for the last decade, may lose their position and influence to bring about a tectonic shift in this Region, provided that the void is not filled by a more radical politician.
All three are heading for their most serious political challenges yet, and the downfall of at least two of them seems almost inevitable. We are already seeing how the legal system, the economic conditions, and the road are beginning to wear down their strength. The question is no longer whether there will be changes, but how big they will be – and, at a voyeuristic level, who will fall first.
The first, and most certain, is Milorad Dodik – the man who thought he was bigger than the state itself. He has already lost the legal battle – which is a historical precedent for post-Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina. He was sentenced to a year in prison and a six-year ban from holding public office, while the Central Election Commission, at least on paper, also stripped him of his mandate. His reaction, for now, is entirely in his style – ignoring institutions, threatening to declare independence again – a classic game of secessionism and drama, according to his familiar script, something that we have already counted as regular political phraseology in BiH. However, this time the story is a little different. The international community seems more determined, while the domestic opposition is noticeably more emboldened. If the rule of law in BiH shows its teeth and implements the decision without allowing the blockage of institutions, Dodik will face the loss of office and real political exile and his complete failure.
However, this does not mean that his influence will disappear overnight – Dodik will certainly try to remain the eminence grise, by installing his trusted people in positions, in an attempt to continue to direct politics from behind the scenes, but the myth of his invulnerability has already been shattered. He is no longer the untouchable leader who blackmails Sarajevo and the international community without consequences. Therefore, if the institutions stand, there is a real chance that Dodik will be politically eliminated in the coming period.
The second, and most interesting for us, is Aleksandar Vučić – the politician who has perfected the art of political survival. But the current crisis is more than just another in a series of benign protests, which he resolved with his own combination of political corruption and authoritarian repression. Now he looks distinctly like a besieged king in his castle, wondering why people don’t eat sweets. The disaster in Novi Sad filled the cup and now there is no turning back. Thousands of people (or tens of thousands – depending on who is reporting) are on the streets every day, while the resignation of the prime minister has already shown that the government is under great pressure. Still, Vučić is not easy to overthrow and recall – with strict control of the media, institutions and security structures, he seems to continue to be safe in the streets, while his party, the SNS, continues to be a well-organized electoral machine.
But his political capital is rapidly running out: Young people are increasingly impatient, economic problems are mounting, and international pressure from the EU and the US is stronger than ever. His latest authoritarian response will only accelerate the situation – repression is effective on an individual level, but when the police start beating demonstrators en masse, it becomes a mechanism for recruiting new protests.
The most realistic scenario is that Vučić will call early elections to “refresh” his legitimacy. However, this is risky: The united opposition could achieve a result that would shake or shatter the absolute dominance of the SNS, provided they remain unified as they are warning for now. Therefore, this is the second leader facing the biggest challenge so far.
The third, Viktor Orbán (affectionately called “the emperor”) – is the most experienced and cunning of the three. His control over institutions is almost absolute, and the electoral system is designed to favor his party, Fidesz. But even the best-constructed systems falter when the economy takes a nosedive, and Hungary has been grappling with high inflation, rising prices and falling real wages in recent years. The urban middle class, which was his key base, is beginning to distance itself from Fidesz. And there is a growing sense of mass discontent. The opposition, which for years was divided and impotent – has finally found common ground around the Tisza party and its charismatic leader, Péter Magyar, and they have been in a clear lead over Fidesz for the past year (6-8%), according to “Politico”.
The parliamentary elections in April 2026 will be the moment of truth. If the opposition manages to mobilize its energy and overcome the media blockade, Orbán could lose power or be forced into a coalition – something that would be a shock to Hungarian politics and a political tectonic shift.
What if all three “musketeers” fall? Now, the main question: What happens if all three of these “musketeers” lose, a plausible scenario over the next 18 months? Of course, this would be a tectonic shift in the political scene: (1) If Dodik falls, Bosnia will have the opportunity to strengthen its institutions and unblock the European path; (2) If Vučić loses, Serbia can finally enter the real process of democratization, with more media freedom and a clearer pro-European course; and (3) If Orbán is defeated, the EU will have the chance to restore its credibility and reduce the blockade of European policies towards Ukraine, Russia and the Balkans. However, we should not ignore the risk that the change of such powerful leaders could create a power vacuum, which traditionally in our country results in unstable transitions and radicalization of the next generation of politicians. BiH could face protests and roadblocks, Serbia an institutional crisis and a weak government, and Hungary Fidesz’s efforts to maintain control through the judiciary and administration.
Of crucial importance will be the legal stability of BiH, the economic developments in Hungary, whether the opposition in Serbia will unite, and whether Brussels and Washington will succeed in preventing the filling of this vacuum with more radical players in the Region, especially under the influence of Russia. If all three fall, the Balkans and Central Europe will look very different: perhaps more open to the EU, less nationalistic, but also more exposed to a period of political uncertainty. History rarely offers such an opportunity – the question is whether societies will seize it for reform or allow new radicals to fill the void. (DW)