In general, European countries are paying attention to reducing their dependence on the United States. Germany currently plans to spend only 8 percent of its rearmament budget on American weapons.
By Joseph DE WECK
The European Union is finally on the right track to becoming a power in its own right. This is not because its member states have suddenly stopped bickering or its bureaucratic inertia has melted away. But because the past four years have produced a state of unremitting crisis. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the beginning. Now the imperative comes from Donald Trump’s repositioning of the United States as something close to an antagonist. Without the guarantee of American cooperation and NATO protection, the EU is once again vulnerable. And in response, in the past year, it has offered a series of innovations that amount to a quiet revolution in the way it exercises power.
In May, the EU decided, for the first time, to help finance defense spending for its 27 member states by taking on debt across the EU. The move came from the realization that even serious spending increases in individual countries — European states have doubled their defense spending since 2015 — would make a big difference given economic disparities. Germany, for example, plans to invest roughly $77 billion over five years, meaning that by 2030, its defense budget could be the third-largest in the world. But that kind of spending is not possible for countries that already have more debt, and confronting Russian President Vladimir Putin, potentially without U.S. support, would require rearming everyone. To this end, the EU has now created an extraordinary instrument, called the Security Action for Europe, or SAFE, which is prepared to finance up to $178 billion in improvements to the continent’s capacity to produce and secure weapons.
For the first time, Europe will essentially protect its own defense industry. “European preference” was long dismissed as a French fantasy. But that was when buying American weapons was a premium that allies paid for American defense. Now Trump has signaled that the deal is off: He talks to Putin over the heads of the Europeans and has suggested that America’s NATO commitments are a fabrication. So European states using SAFE funds will have to procure more European-made weapons and parts than not. This priority is also included in the $107 billion debt-financed Ukraine package recently agreed by Europe, which limits Kiev to buying European-made weapons to the extent possible.
In general, European countries are paying attention to reducing their dependence on the United States. Germany currently plans to spend only 8 percent of its rearmament budget on American weapons. It is even developing its own satellite communications network to replace Starlink. Most strikingly, European capitals are for the first time seeking to address the core of Europe’s dependence: the American nuclear umbrella. Germany and Sweden are in talks with France and the United Kingdom about a possible European nuclear deterrent. Poland and the Netherlands have expressed interest in joining. Europe is benefiting economically from all these changes in defense posture. In stock markets, domestic defense firms outperformed the top seven U.S. technology stocks last year. And defense firms are productive: Germany’s Rheinmetall will soon be able to produce more artillery shells than the entire U.S. defense industry. And EU leaders are currently considering implementing “buy European” provisions that have helped spur arms production in other industries, such as digital services and green technologies.
The EU once defined itself as a champion of open markets. Today it is reassessing that commitment in light of its need for self-reliance. Berlin is planning to exclude Chinese suppliers from its 6G network and is testing an open-source alternative to Microsoft. The French government has replaced Zoom with a domestic videoconferencing platform. Along with reducing its dependence on the United States and China, Brussels is cultivating other relationships. In recent weeks, it has concluded broad free trade agreements with members of the Mercosur trading bloc (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) and India.
The way Europe makes decisions is changing to suit the moment, and these changes are perhaps the most important of all the “firsts.” In the past, EU members had to agree unanimously before Brussels could adopt policies on particularly sensitive issues. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel strongly defended this rule. But today’s leaders have come to the conclusion that abandoning it is the price of geopolitical importance. In December, the EU invoked an emergency legal provision to bypass the unanimity requirement in order to freeze Russian assets indefinitely. That same month, the EU approved its debt-financed deal for Ukraine also without unanimous approval: Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic were persuaded to abstain rather than veto it.
Europe is not yet a fully autonomous power, and it won’t be tomorrow. But thanks to Trump, a transformation is underway. With each new one, others become more questionable. The crucial question is whether Europe can stay the course. A super-election year is approaching in 2027, when France, Italy, Spain and Poland will all hold the vote. Far-right victories – particularly in France and Poland – could upset the current trajectory. Or not: Approval of the EU is at 74 percent, a record high. The new far-right politicians may well understand that returning to the nation state means choosing powerlessness. That may be the outcome that leaders in Washington, Moscow and Beijing prefer. But in their attempt to fragment Europe into malleable nation states, they are instead galvanizing its slow march toward self-determination. (Euronews.al)