Membership in the European Union (EU) without veto power. This idea is being discussed among European officials, but not publicly, while at least two Western Balkan leaders have publicly expressed their willingness to accept such an option for the sake of future membership in the bloc.
The right of veto, provided for in the EU’s founding treaties, means that, in certain political decisions for which unanimity is required, such as that for the admission of new members, any member state can block the decision.
The discussion on the possibility of six Western Balkan countries being admitted to the EU without the right of veto is emerging as an option, mentioned in connection with the peace negotiations in Ukraine, for which the main initiative currently lies with the United States.
Although the EU is not formally involved in these negotiations, the possibility of Ukraine joining the bloc as part of a peace deal with Russia is being considered, US officials have confirmed this to journalists informally on several occasions.
Ten countries belong to the enlargement group: six Western Balkan countries, as well as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. Turkey, although part of this process for more than ten years, has frozen its accession negotiations.
Could Brussels’ eventual willingness to open the doors to Ukraine after peace is achieved also have an impact on the Balkan states?
What is the European Commission’s position?
When asked about a possible easing of membership criteria for Balkan countries, the European Commission’s press service told Radio Free Europe that EU enlargement is now seen not only from the perspective of economic benefits, but also in a security context.
“Enlargement brings clear benefits both for member states and for countries aiming for membership. The current debate clearly shows one thing: enlargement is also about security. In the current geopolitical context, we must ensure that our approach is fit for purpose,” the EC’s response states.
A European Commission spokesman confirmed that Ukraine’s future membership in the bloc is part of the peace negotiations, but Brussels does not want to prejudge the outcome.
“It is clear that EU integration can contribute to our common goal: ensuring peace and prosperity for Ukraine. This is also what the ‘Framework for Prosperity’ represents,” the EC press service said.
The “Framework for Prosperity” is a US-European document for Ukraine, designed to provide Kiev with financial guarantees, along with security guarantees, for the stabilization of Ukraine after the end of the war with Russia.
Who is behind this informal proposal?
Marta Kos, Commissioner for Enlargement and a politician from Slovenia, is a supporter of revising the veto right for future members, in order to make membership easier, a source within the EC tells REL.
Kos has so far not spoken publicly about this possibility, while a source close to REL says that her position does not enjoy full support in the EC. In fact, among the 27 member states there is no clear position, nor enthusiasm, regarding a possible change of the “rules of the game” in the process of accepting new members.
Also, unofficial sources from the European Commission estimate that the president of this institution, Ursula von der Leyen, could support such an idea if this would be the price to be paid for ending the war in Ukraine. More precisely, it is clarified that this would only be possible if it were certain that such an initiative would be accepted, at least for consideration, by the EU member states.
What would this change involve? First, giving up the veto right, then gradual membership, initially through access to the common market, with possible increased monitoring at all stages, until full membership, when all criteria are met.
The EU’s single market, created in 1993, operates as a single borderless area, where the concept of the “four freedoms” is applied: the free movement of goods, services, people and capital. The Western Balkan countries, the EU’s closest neighbours, do not enjoy this opportunity. Although they are not EU members, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Iceland have access to this market.
Furthermore, the criterion that was established for all states gravitating towards the EU, and from which there is no compromise, is related to the rule of law.
What task should Serbia fulfill?
Recent changes to justice laws, initiated by the party of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, have clearly placed the rule of law at the top of the requirements for Serbia, which has been a candidate for EU membership since 2012.
European officials point out that Serbia has recently regressed in the rule of law through the adoption of controversial justice laws.
The European Commission has assessed that with this Serbia has taken a step back in the European integration process, as these laws, in Brussels’ opinion, endanger the independence of the judiciary. This is an undoubtedly sensitive request for Belgrade, which has carried out changes in the judiciary at a time when the government is facing widespread protests, where the main demands are related to the fight against crime and corruption.
The message from Brussels has echoed in Belgrade, and the head of Serbia’s mission to the EU, Daniell Apostolović, has stated that three new chapters in the negotiations will not be opened until the issue of laws is resolved.
President Vučić himself, who supported the changes to the justice laws, has paid more attention to the issue of the veto in the context of negotiations with the EU. Serbia would be willing to give up its veto right for the sake of membership, Vučić said on February 16 in an interview with the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
“The most important aspect for us is the common market and the free movement of goods, people and capital. These are the central values we want to achieve through EU membership,” Vučić declared, the German newspaper reported.
The Serbian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as the institutions responsible for negotiations with the EU, have not commented on this issue.
Vucic is not alone. Faced with corruption allegations that have led to protests and collision on the streets of Tirana, the Prime Minister of Albania, Edi Rama, has stated several times in the last two months that he is willing to give up his veto right for a semi-membership in the EU.
Faced with corruption allegations, which led to demonstrations and clashes in the streets of Tirana, Albania’s Prime Minister, Edi Rama, has declared several times over the last two months that he is willing to give up his veto right for a “semi-membership” in the EU.
Albanian institutions have not commented on this possibility. Albania has successfully opened all chapters in the accession negotiations and now expects to start closing them. Albania, together with neighboring Montenegro, are the most successful countries in terms of negotiations with Brussels.
Why is the idea of Brussels not attractive to Podgorica?
Montenegro is the country that has advanced the most in the accession process, with a real prospect of completing negotiations and to become a member of the EU at the end of this decade.
In this context, the offer of a progressive membership is not attractive to this country, as Podgorica is in the last mile of closing the negotiation process leading to the signing of the Membership Agreement.
Montenegro’s Minister for European Integration, Maida Gorcevic, tells Radio Free Europe that Podgorica “is aware that there are different ideas for membership with phases and layers” that for some countries may seem like an easier and faster path. Montenegro, however, remains committed to the merit-based model.
“Our goal is clear: full membership, equal to all existing member states. We believe that such an approach is best not only for Montenegrin society and economy, but also for the European Union itself, because only fully prepared states can further strengthen the European project,” says Gorcevic.
Relief for North Macedonia
Two decades ago, North Macedonia was considered one of the countries that had advanced the most in European integration. Today, it is the biggest obstacle to the veto power politics of EU member states.
As a candidate for full membership since 2005, North Macedonia has been promised since 2009 that it would open accession negotiations once the name dispute with neighboring Greece was resolved.
The dispute was resolved in 2018, Greece lifted its veto, but Bulgaria used its veto right and continues to block North Macedonia from the European integration process, insisting on respecting the common historical and linguistic heritage, and demanding constitutional and educational changes to recognize the Bulgarian minority.
The Government of North Macedonia tells Radio Free Europe that they are ready to adapt to possible changes within the EU.
“In essence, this would mean membership and institutional presence in the EU from 2027, but with limited decision-making capacity, gradual and conditional integration, and strong monitoring until full compliance with the European system. As a Government, we are fully aware of the dynamic changes taking place and the need to anticipate and adapt to them,” the Macedonian executive stressed.
Welcome signal from Bosnia and Kosovo
The invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth year, has revived the enlargement process that had been “dormant” for years.
Bosnia and Herzegovina which is still recovering from the trauma of the war that took place 30 years ago, is a typical example. It received candidate status in December 2022, immediately after Ukraine and precisely because of Ukraine, even though Sarajevo had not met the necessary conditions previously set by the EC.
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Elmedin Konakovic, said last week that the idea of membership without the right of veto had been supported by him several years ago.
“In the first phase, opening the possibility to enter the EU without the right of veto, with the further fulfillment of the conditions to reach this phase, is something phenomenal. This means a lot, it attracts investments, increases wages and living standards, keeps young people in Bosnia and Herzegovina and provides more funds for all problems, even for trams in Sarajevo. So, this is something that the country needs, and when we focus on this, everything will be easier and more beautiful,” Konakovic declared on February 19 in Banja Luka.
Konakovic alluded to two problems that weigh on daily life in Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to data from the Union for Sustainable Returns from 2023, nearly 600.000 people have fled the country in the last decade. The recent tragedy of an old tram derailing in Sarajevo prompted protests by citizens dissatisfied with the poor functioning of public services.
Kosova, where memories of the war are also still fresh, is the only country in the enlargement group that does not have candidate country status, although it submitted its application in 2022. Five EU member states do not recognize Kosovo’s independence, which blocks discussion on applying for candidate status.
Kosovo’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Diaspora, Kreshnik Ahmeti, believes that by granting Kosovo candidate status, the EU would send a signal that the integration process for the Western Balkan countries will have equal treatment for all, based on the merits of each.
“The MFA does not comment on possible closed discussions of EU institutions. In case this hypothetical scenario materializes, we will review it in due time. Now, it is important for Kosovo to begin the official integration process, taking candidate status and the questionnaire,” Ahmeti tells Radio Free Europe.
“Exposing the harsh reality”
With these words, Adi Cerimagic, Western Balkans analyst at the Berlin-based European Stability Initiative (ESI), describes the debate over so-called semi-membership, without veto power or with increased monitoring after EU entry.
“Member states have not yet made a fundamental political decision on whether, when and under what conditions they want to admit new members,” Cerimagic assesses.
He emphasizes that in recent years there has been talk of a new momentum and that progress has been made in the negotiation process, but that the main political issue remains open: does the EU want enlargement, within what timeframe and according to what criteria.
“In such a context, it is not surprising to see discussions on alternative models: from membership without the right of veto, through stricter mechanisms of sanctioning regression, to the idea of so-called inverted membership, according to which candidates would formally join the bloc, and then continue to work to harmonize with the rules and standards,” he says.
Çerimagić confirms that the details of the new models are being considered within EU institutions, but the information available is limited:
“Without clear outlines of the model that the European Commission can develop, it is difficult to predict the positions of member states, and even more difficult to discern the possibilities of a possible compromise.”
He believes that for the Western Balkan countries, the best outcome would be for the 27 member states to show political will and readiness for an agreement on a key or important goal for all candidates.
“This goal should ensure the EU’s credibility and strengthen political support for reforms in the candidates – from harmonizing legislation with the European acquis to strengthening the rule of law and democratic institutions. To achieve this, the EU must pave the way for candidates to the essential benefits of membership: access to the common market and full use of the four freedoms of movement. Anything less would be another missed opportunity,” says Çerimagić.
Is progressive accession possible within the existing legal framework?
The answer to this question is clear: it is simply not possible to admit new members to the EU without amending the EU Treaty.
The current treaty does not provide for limited membership or membership without a veto. All member states have the same status in the EU legal order.
To amend the EU Treaty, a unanimous agreement of all member states is necessary. In the current geopolitical context of the EU, this is an almost impossible mission.
If a country completes accession negotiations within the existing legal framework, membership will be achieved according to the treaties, with full rights and obligations. (RFE)