Today’s analysis begins with a memo sent by Jay Clayton, the director of all US intelligence agencies, to the State Department. The document warns of the risk of Iranian attacks against American diplomats and officials, both abroad and within the United States.
By Guido OLIMPIO
Alarms, war of words and threats. The US-Iran crisis continues in a situation of high tension, always one step away from the resumption of the conflict. It would not be at all strange if the fire of war were to be reignited soon. For some, this is a matter of days, even hours.
Today’s analysis begins with a memo sent by Jay Clayton, the director of all US intelligence agencies, to the State Department. The document warns of the risk of Iranian attacks against American diplomats and officials, both abroad and within the United States.
According to information, intelligence services have collected data on the preparations of clandestine structures linked to the Quds Force, a unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which operates through its members or relies on mercenaries.
USA-IRAN: CLEAR MESSAGES
Fearing surprise attacks, Washington has alerted its personnel throughout the Region, in some cases reducing the number of employees. Security has also been increased around diplomatic missions and military bases, which have been hit several times by the Revolutionary Guards during previous phases of the conflict. The New York Times, which has given considerable coverage to the issue, as well as the Axios portal, have published information on these risks.
Indeed, these reports reflect what Iranian sources have stated over the past few weeks.
From Tehran, the messages have been clear: if attacked, we can respond by hitting military bases, oil infrastructure and undersea cables. This list of targets, already expected, has been added to new targets: military officers and diplomats, as reported by the Iranian Fars news agency. The Revolutionary Guard may use the tactic of targeted killings, a way to remain faithful to its strategy, which aims to expand its scope as much as possible.
However, the main issue is to understand whether these operations would be undertaken solely in retaliation for an attack or whether, as some analysts have speculated, Iran could take preventive action before becoming the object of an offensive itself.
In Tehran, a majority faction within the regime is convinced that it has all the cards in its favor to humiliate Donald Trump and is almost “obsessed” with the idea of forcing him into submission. According to this view, resuming Operation Epic Fury would cause immense damage to the Gulf monarchies, would have economic consequences for everyone, and would not give the White House the victory it seeks.
On the other hand, the Donald Trump-Benjamin Netanyahu duo continues to believe that another powerful strike, through massive bombing, could be devastating for the axis formed by the ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guard. Thus, both sides rely on the weaknesses, real or supposed, of the opponent. These calculations are also influenced by domestic political considerations.
PRAGMATISM
Observers have a more pragmatic approach, which can be summarized in the following elements:
– SIGNS OF NEW AMERICAN-ISRAELI ATTACKS. There are numerous signals indicating the possibility of future air strikes by Israel and the United States. The number of tanker aircraft, which are used to refuel fighter jets in flight, has increased significantly again.
Specialized electronic warfare aircraft have also arrived in the area of operations. Close consultations have been held between the parties, while the Pentagon has also mentioned the possibility of using the “mother of all bombs”, one of the most powerful conventional bombs in the US arsenal.
– IRAN DOES NOT DARE TO WITHDRAW. Tehran does not want to make concessions and has repeated this to the mediators, who have not abandoned their diplomatic mission.
– POSSIBILITY OF ASSASSINATIONS WITHIN THE USA. It would not be easy for the Iranians to organize assassinations on US soil. However, we should never bet on what we don’t know.
THE CASE OF THE BRITISH FAIRFORD BASE. Fears of possible drone sabotage against the British Fairford base, which is also used by the Americans, have been enough to cause the immediate departure of B-1 strategic bombers. It is a story with many question marks, but one that has highlighted the concerns of the West and has scored a point in favor of the ayatollahs’ regime.
– DEVELOPMENTS AROUND THE STRAIT OF HORMuz. We should not lose sight of what is happening around the Strait of Hormuz. October saw a record number of Iranian attacks on oil tankers: almost 30 attacks. In some cases, the Revolutionary Guard is suspected of using drones equipped with infrared guidance systems. This conclusion is drawn from the locations where the strikes were recorded, in the area of the ships’ engines.
– VERBAL WARFARE. Taking responsibility for their successes, members of the Revolutionary Guard have, in some cases, attributed the strikes to “sea mines.” However, not all experts are convinced by this explanation.
For his part, Donald Trump has accused the Islamic Republic of cheating. According to the US president, many of these surprise attacks at sea never happened. With this statement, Trump aims to emphasize that Tehran does not have full control of the Strait of Hormuz.
(Corriere della Sera)