The supply of oil on the global market would not change, nor would its price. But the symbolism is clear: Trump is openly aligning the US with Russia. The only effect of easing sanctions is to help Putin.
By Timothy SNYDER
Earlier this year, when I first described Donald Trump’s guiding principle of foreign policy as “superpower suicide,” it was already clear that the US president’s whimsical war on Iran was a strategic disaster. Five months later, that failure has become even more apparent. Worse, it has given Trump yet another excuse to reward Russia. Weakness has bred more weakness. Iran knew from the start that Trump would never engage in an invasion, which gave it the ability to escalate the situation at will. The United States has been forced to reduce its presence in the Middle East, even withdrawing strategic bombers from the United Kingdom—a scenario that, until recently, would have been unthinkable.
Meanwhile, Iran’s allies can attack American allies with impunity across the Region: The Houthis attack Riyadh airport in the capital of Saudi Arabia, and there’s not much anyone can do about it.
Domestically, the war is deeply unpopular, not least because it has driven up fuel prices. Ahead of the midterm elections, that weakness has matched Trump’s other major weakness: his long-standing desire to bow to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump, on whom the Kremlin pinned its hopes for victory in Ukraine, has largely done Putin’s bidding, notably by ending U.S. arms transfers and sales to Ukraine and, just last week, agreeing to buy Russian oil, before blaming Ukraine for high fuel prices. The unfairness of these accusations is evident in Ukraine, where Russia has destroyed energy infrastructure with ballistic missiles and drones have destroyed gas stations.
Ukrainians risk their lives to get gas and Americans pay more at the pump because Trump chose a catastrophic defeat in Iran over support for Ukraine. By blaming the Ukrainians for the mess he created, Trump finds a way to help his protege Putin. Make your mailbox smarter.
Featured Bulletins The apparent motivation behind this deal with the Kremlin — a quick fix for lower oil prices before the midterm elections — makes no sense. It’s unclear whether Russia can actually supply the fuel, given its domestic shortages. Like a typical Trump deal, this could end up with American taxpayers paying double or triple the price for something that was advertised as a gift. Let’s imagine, however, that Russian ships docked in American ports with oil. That would likely mean that Russia has stiffed its other partners to make Trump feel grateful.
The supply of oil on the global market would not change, nor would its price. But the symbolism is clear: Trump is openly aligning the US with Russia.
The only effect of easing sanctions is to help Putin. Of course, given that Russia has offered lucrative oil deals to Trump’s “negotiators” – who, incidentally, are the son-in-law and a friend of the US president – one cannot rule out the possibility that this could lead to personal gain. At this point, the US does not have a foreign policy in the usual sense; it has clans trying to turn the disasters caused by Trump into opportunities for illicit gain. This intertwining of weakness with corruption is another hallmark of a superpower’s self-destruction. US power is based on the rule of law. Buying oil from Russia is, in essence, illegal, as a 2022 law prohibits it unless Russia withdraws from Ukraine. Moreover, Trump has just signed a law that provides for tougher sanctions against Russia, as well as punitive tariffs on countries that import Russian fuel. This not only makes the whole situation even more grotesque, but it also undermines American law, further weakening the country.
Even if one tries to enter the worldview of the MAGA movement and imagine that Trump’s foreign policy priorities are exactly what he claims, his highly contradictory actions toward Iran and Russia create a self-reinforcing cycle of weakness.
As is well known, Iran and Russia are close allies who supply each other with weapons and intelligence. Iran supplies Russia with drones and even sent instructors to use them in occupied Ukraine at the beginning of the war. Russia openly supports Iran in its war against the United States, while its nuclear specialists work intensively inside that country. By sending dollars to Russia, Trump is helping Iran and flattering a leader who supports his enemy. Trump’s openly pro-Russian foreign policy has made the world more dangerous. If Russia wins its full-scale war against Ukraine, aggressors everywhere will be emboldened. And Trump’s calls (parroting Russian propaganda) for Ukraine to elect a new president support the idea that the occupiers—not the voters—should be the ones to determine governments. He seems to believe that Ukraine should stop defending itself against Russia, while Russia refuses to surrender or negotiate a peace proposal.
The reason Putin has no intention of negotiating is that Trump is extremely pliable towards him. Trump decided that the US should buy Russian diesel after a phone call with Putin, in which they discussed fears of an epidemic in a laboratory in Siberia.
Such a sudden and bizarre change of subject shows that Trump is becoming like dough in Putin’s hands. The irony is that Putin is in a very weak position in the war against Ukraine; he is only strong because of Trump’s weakness. Trump, unable to win his foolish war against Iran, blames Ukraine for its consequences and uses this lie to justify lifting sanctions on Russia, thereby prolonging that war. This is a war that springs from weakness – not simply as a fact, but almost as a doctrine. America must lose, lose, and lose again; and wars must be started, prolonged, or instigated, just so that Trump and his associates can make money. To pretend that Trump can be trusted with any kind of power is to become a participant in America’s ongoing suicide as a superpower.