What if Iran tried to close the Strait of Hormuz, further restricting the movement of oil? Many countries around the world are already suffering from a cost-of-living crisis. A rising oil price would add to inflation in a global economic system already crumbling under the weight of Trump’s tariff war. And let’s not forget, the only person benefiting from rising oil prices is President Putin of Russia.
By BBC
For now, the fighting between Israel and Iran appears to be limited to just the two nations. But what if calls for de-escalation fall on deaf ears? What if the fighting escalates and spreads? Here are some possible worst-case scenarios:
AMERICA IS INVOLVED
Despite all US denials, Iran clearly believes that US forces have at least tacitly supported Israel’s attacks. Iran could strike US targets throughout the Middle East – such as special forces camps in Iraq, military bases in the Persian Gulf, and diplomatic missions in the Region. Iran’s proxy forces – Hamas and Hezbollah – may be greatly diminished, but its supporting militias in Iraq remain armed and intact. The US feared that such attacks were a possibility and withdrew some personnel. In its public messages, the US has firmly warned Iran of the consequences of any attack on US targets.
What could happen if an American citizen were killed, say, in Tel Aviv or elsewhere?
Donald Trump may be forced to act. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long been accused of wanting to involve the US in helping him defeat Iran. Military analysts say that only the US has the bombers and bunker-busting bombs that can penetrate deep into Iranian nuclear facilities, especially Fordow. Trump promised his MAGA voters that he would not start any so-called “forever wars” in the Middle East. But just as many Republicans support both the Israeli government and its view that now is the time to seek regime change in Tehran.
But if America were to become an active belligerent, this would represent a major escalation with a long duration and potentially devastating consequences.
GULF COUNTRIES ARE INCLUDED
If Iran fails to damage Israel’s military and other well-defended targets, then it can always direct its missiles at softer targets in the Persian Gulf, particularly countries that Iran believes have aided and abetted its enemies over the years. There are many energy and infrastructure targets in the Region. Recall that Iran was accused of attacking Saudi Arabia’s oil fields in 2019 and its Houthi proxies struck targets in the United Arab Emirates in 2022. Since then, there has been some kind of reconciliation between Iran and several countries in the Region.
But these countries have American air bases. Some also – discreetly – helped defend Israel from an Iranian missile attack last year. If the Gulf were attacked, it could also demand American fighter jets come to its defense, just as Israel’s did.
ISRAEL FAILS TO DESTROY IRAN’S NUCLEAR CAPACITY
What if the Israeli attack fails? What if Iran’s nuclear facilities are too deep, too well-protected? What if 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium – nuclear fuel that is just a small step away from being fully weapons-grade, enough for about ten bombs – is not destroyed? It is thought that it may be hidden deep in secret mines. Israel may have killed some nuclear scientists, but no bomb can destroy Iran’s knowledge and expertise.
What if Israel’s attack convinces Iran’s leadership that the only way to deter further attacks is to race for nuclear capability as soon as possible?
What if those new military leaders around the table are more stubborn and less cautious than their dead predecessors? At the very least, it could force Israel to launch further attacks, potentially tying the Region into a continuous round of attacks and counterattacks. The Israelis have a brutal phrase for this strategy; they call it “mowing the lawn.”
THERE IS A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SHOCK
The price of oil has already risen sharply. What if Iran tried to close the Strait of Hormuz, further restricting the movement of oil? Many countries around the world are already suffering from a cost-of-living crisis. A rising oil price would add to inflation in a global economic system already crumbling under the weight of Trump’s tariff war. And let’s not forget, the only person benefiting from rising oil prices is President Putin of Russia, who would suddenly see billions more dollars pouring into the Kremlin’s coffers to pay for his war against Ukraine.
IRAN’S REGIME FALLS, LEAVING A VOCATION
What if Israel achieves its long-term goal of forcing the overthrow of the Islamic revolutionary regime in Iran? Netanyahu claims that his primary goal is to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability. But he made clear in his statement yesterday that his broader goal includes regime change. He told the “proud people of Iran” that his attack was “paving the way to achieve your freedom” from what he called “their evil and oppressive regime.” He made clear in his statement yesterday that his broader goal includes regime change. The overthrow of Iran’s government may appeal to some in the Region, especially some Israelis.