Analyst Ian Bremmer tells the Financial Times that Donald Trump is “trapped” and cannot claim victory, while warning that a recession is inevitable. According to him, the attack on Iran constitutes the most serious mistake of Trump’s two terms, while the situation in the Region has escalated significantly, especially after the attacks on gas plants in Qatar and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. “With the Strait of Hormuz closed and no short-term solution to the crisis, I don’t see how a recession can be avoided. It is an extremely serious situation, caused by a major error in Donald Trump’s assessment: the most serious of his two terms,” Bremmer says.
But has Netanyahu been drawn into the war, as Joe Kent claims? “No. The Israeli leader has always tried to convince American presidents to attack Iran. But they have never done so. Neither has Trump, so far. Then, the military success in Venezuela convinced him that he could do the same in Iran, although with greater difficulties.” Bremmer estimates that with Hormuz blocked and no short-term solution to the crisis, the global economy is facing a high risk of recession, describing the situation as the result of a “major strategic mistake” by the US.
He adds that Iran no longer has room for diplomatic solutions and that military escalation has entered the conflict into a new phase, where threats no longer function as a means of deterrence.
According to Bremmer, the US is also considering options for ground intervention, but they remain very risky and without guaranteed results, while the crisis is expected to last due to the lack of capacity and limited involvement of allies. He also emphasizes that energy markets are global and that the US is also feeling the consequences of rising prices, while he predicts great tensions and legal challenges for American domestic politics after the elections.