Serbian experts tell DW that the lack of strategy in Serbia’s foreign policy, which is largely shaped by President Aleksandar Vučić, leads to improvisations and limited results.
Serbian foreign policy, like practically everything else, is led by one man: Aleksandar Vučić, the President of Serbia. The Serbian government is only a silent observer of diplomatic agreements and business deals with individual countries. This is also why this policy is marked by the improvisations and personal agenda of the President of Serbia. To this should be added the fact that geopolitical events are also viewed from the perspective of one man and that Serbia’s further moves in the field of foreign policy are adjusted on this basis. In practice, this means that Aleksandar Vučić evaluates world events based on parameters known only to him and tries to present himself to the public as a man with special solutions, who, like a kind of television prophet, predicts when and where war will break out, who is preparing for this or that move, and who will be against whom and with whom.
As an illustration of the complete lack of collective analysis, Vučić’s recent warning to his associates in Serbia, during a foreign visit, not to comment on anything in the field of foreign policy until he returns, because they might say something wrong and ruin their foreign policy visions.
VUCIC’S MEGALOMANIC AMBITIONS
If, therefore, only one person is involved in Serbia’s diplomacy in the global context, it is not surprising that foreign policy commentator Boško Jakšić assesses the achievements of Serbian foreign policy as a fiasco: “Aleksandar Vučić still adheres to the four-chair foreign policy policy, which has since become quite unstable, especially after the war in Ukraine. There is no longer room for four chairs, but Vučić, in his megalomaniacal ambition, thinks that he is a major global player, which ultimately led to the fact that Serbia had no reliable allies either in the East or in the West,” emphasizes DW’s interlocutor.
MODEST ECONOMIC BENEFITS
Serbia has no foreign policy strategy, Naim Leo Beshiri, director of the Institute for European Affairs, tells DW, adding “how is this not a coincidence”: “If you don’t have a strategy, it means that you are not relying on solid facts, which say that the European Union (EU) should be the main pillar of foreign policy. This then leaves room for Aleksandar Vučić, whom the Serbian government does not limit at all in this sense, to gain from foreign mediation only what benefits him personally and the people around him who are getting extremely rich. Foreign policy is created according to corruption and personal gain, and not for the sake of improving the lives of Serbian citizens,” Beshiri tells DW.
There is no doubt that the government has been conducting an intensive foreign policy campaign in recent months, but it is also shrouded in mystery. In addition to President Vučić, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also participated in the campaign to some extent, and as usual, apart from phrases about strategic partnership and some vague business ventures, it remained unclear whether any important agreements were negotiated there, or whether allies were sought to combat the protests in Serbia. Serbia seems to be ready to cooperate with everyone except the countries of the European Union, whose membership it at least declaratively advocates.
The epilogue of all this is small economic benefits for Serbia, emphasizes Naim Leo Beshiri, “and this most often has to do with the sale of weapons or the provision of Serbian resources. If you follow the government’s propaganda, you see that the number of strategic partners that Serbia has is simply incredible. The fact that Serbia does not have any important chapters open with the EU shows that no one trusts Serbia anymore and that it is not seen as a reliable partner. When relations with the EU become strained, Vučić immediately seeks support in Beijing, and the EU at those moments makes some concessions to the regime, which I do not think is a good approach towards the EU,” Beshiri believes.
WHAT BRUSSELS SHOULD UNDERSTAND
The European Union is showing too much tolerance towards Aleksandar Vučić, Jakšić emphasizes, because in his words, “in Serbia he is presented as the center of a conspiracy against Serbia, as support for a protest or as a failed project. In this regard, Vučić is returning to his radical roots. The explanation is simple, he never spoke about the values of liberal democracy on which the EU is based. He was never interested in this and someone in Brussels should understand this”, Jakšić draws attention. Diplomatic paths in Serbia’s current foreign policy campaign show that it is mainly countries that cannot boast of exemplary democracies.
Aleksandar Vučić has paid so much attention to relations with Azerbaijan, he flew to the United Arab Emirates in the midst of the conflict with Iran, he declared Serbia Africa’s greatest friend in Europe, and texts are also appearing in Britain praising Vučić’s wise foreign policy. Even in Serbia, Vučić’s multi-chair dance is seen by his supporters as a brilliant foreign policy strategy.
“IT’S PROFITING FROM WAR”
He is looking forward to the same, comments Naim Leo Beshiri, and notes “this is why Vučić is looking for his partners in autocratic governments. He has not been seen in a country where the rule of law exists, and when he does appear, it is when he practically buys his presence through some unfavorable agreements for Serbia, like in France. Likewise, in times of war, he sells weapons to Israel or Ukraine. This is the strategy of someone who wants to make a profit, this is profiting from the war, which Vučić did in the 1990s and still does today. Many will not turn a blind eye to this, and this will cost the citizens of Serbia”, warns the director of the Institute for European Affairs.
Vučić’s list of allies consists of autocrats, populists, nationalists and despots, notes Jakšić. Our interlocutor also says that “the conflict with Iran has put Vučić in an uncomfortable position, because a lot of energy has been invested in relations with Israel and America, which suffer from criticism and their allies. “I think that Trump cannot be influenced through Israel, because Trump likes personal contacts. Vučić talks about increasing relations with America, but he is personally responsible for the deterioration of these relations. Now he is in a position to sit on a bench and wait for someone in Brussels, Washington and to have mercy in Moscow to repair relations with Serbia, which they ruined,” concludes Boško Jakšić. (DW)