From a history of remarkable success to a period of uncertainty, Gulf air hubs are facing serious challenges due to the conflict in the Middle East. Flight disruptions, rising prices and changing passenger confidence could reshape the way we travel in the future.
Once a mere stopover in the world of global aviation, a dusty spot where luxury jets stopped on long journeys from the United Kingdom to far-flung parts of the former British Empire, such as India and Australia. By the 1960s, there was just a simple sand strip in the desert, used as a refueling point for planes travelling to more exotic destinations.
Today, Dubai is one of the world’s leading aviation hubs, and Dubai International Airport (DXB) is its heart. In 2024 alone, over 92 million passengers passed through its modern, marble-floored, and brightly shop-lined halls. That makes DXB the world’s busiest airport for international passengers – beating out major airports like London’s Heathrow, which handled just under 83 million passengers. And Dubai is not alone in the Region: rival airports in Abu Dhabi and Doha, Qatar, while less busy, handled a combined 87 million passengers. Under normal conditions, these three airports in the Persian Gulf handle more than 3.000 flights each day, most of which are operated by domestic airlines like Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways.
However, the conflict in the Middle East has had a major impact on global aviation. Initially, it paralyzed air traffic in some of the world’s busiest airspaces, leaving planes stranded at airports and hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded. Even today, air traffic in the Region remains disrupted.
Another major problem is fuel supplies. With supplies from refineries in the Persian Gulf blocked after Iran restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation has become increasingly worrying. The Region usually supplies about half of Europe’s jet fuel imports, and fears of shortages have caused prices to double since the conflict began. Some airlines have already started to reduce flights. While these problems are expected to dominate the situation in the short term and will likely lead to price increases in the coming months, the long-term impact remains a question mark. In particular, experts are wondering what will happen to the so-called “Gulf model” in aviation, which has transformed long-haul travel and made it more affordable. This has major consequences for airlines, passengers and businesses in the Middle East that depend on the Region’s numerous air connections.
CHAOS IN THE DEPARTURE HALLS
Gulf air hubs, which usually operate as well-organized mechanisms, came to an abrupt halt after the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. With airspace across the Region closed, many planes were grounded, while some that were already in the air were forced to turn back.
Tens of thousands of passengers were stranded in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar, many of them transit passengers who had come only to change planes. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar were targeted by retaliatory drone and missile attacks from Iran, creating a tense and intimidating atmosphere for those stranded in airports and hotels. Many other passengers around the world were also unable to travel as planned, as their flights passed through these Gulf hubs. They were forced to seek alternatives in difficult and often chaotic conditions.
Airlines such as Emirates and Etihad launched a limited service to bring passengers home within days, while Qatar Airways followed suit shortly afterwards. Other companies outside the Region also organised additional flights, while several governments, including the UK, deployed special aircraft to help citizens leave the area.
Since then, the situation has somewhat stabilized, and all three major airlines have resumed regular flights from their hubs. However, schedules remain limited and often unstable. According to analysts Cirium, more than 30.000 flights to the Middle East have been canceled since the conflict began. This situation has become even more visible to the public, as many travelers have shared their experiences and frustrations on social networks or in the media. One of them was Ian Scott, who was traveling from Melbourne to Venice via Doha. His flight from the Qatari capital was forced to turn back midway, and he then spent several days sheltering in a hotel. In the end, he decided to drive for two days through the desert to Oman, from where he managed to secure a flight to leave.
Today, he says that in the future he will avoid flights through Gulf air hubs, even after the conflicts end – because, according to him, he does not believe that the problems in the Region will end there.
HOW THE GULF AIR CENTERS BECAME SO SUCCESSFUL
And it is the opinions of travelers like Ian that worry airport executives the most. Although Dubai, in particular, has become a major tourist and business destination, more than half of the passengers who pass through the Gulf’s air hubs don’t stay there – they simply change planes.
According to the data, last year 47% of passengers in Dubai were transit passengers, compared with 54% in Abu Dhabi and 74% in Doha. This is the essence of the Gulf aviation model. Passengers are transported from different cities around the world on long-haul flights, to catch carefully planned connections that then take them to other, equally distant destinations. This allows them to travel, for example, from Boston to Bali, or from Amsterdam to Antananarivo, with just one stop and without many complications. This model differs from the traditional “hub-and-spoke” system, where passengers are first transported by short-haul flights to a central airport, and then transferred to large aircraft for long-haul international flights. It also differs from the “point-to-point” model, where passengers travel directly between cities, usually on smaller aircraft.
The Gulf airlines’ approach combines the convenience of direct travel with the economic benefits of a hub model. It is a unique model, highly dependent on the Region’s geographical location.
Within about three hours of flight from the Gulf are the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent and even the area around China – a large and very important market. This has enabled the Region’s airlines to build strong networks, not only connecting the capitals but also secondary and tertiary cities, making one-stop travel possible. The Region’s strategic position at the turn of the century placed it in an ideal position to benefit from the rapid growth of markets such as China and India – markets that were initially underestimated by European and American airlines. Another important factor was the fact that these airlines were relatively young and could invest in modern fleets, adapted to this model. Initially, the twin-engine Boeing 777 aircraft, with a capacity of around 300 passengers and a long range, was widely used. Later, the Airbus A380 also became very important, carrying over 500 passengers at congested airports where take-off and landing spaces were limited.
One of the main advantages was the ability to build everything from scratch – a “white paper,” as experts describe it – creating a level of service that often couldn’t be matched by companies in more traditional markets like the US, Europe, or Australia.
As a result, Gulf airlines and their airports have grown rapidly since the turn of the millennium, becoming key hubs for international aviation. Their operations are extremely efficient: 90 to 100 flights can arrive within an hour, then depart for other destinations just an hour or two later. This model has also significantly reduced the costs of long-haul travel. Increased competition and increased capacity from Gulf airlines have pushed ticket prices down and made intercontinental travel more affordable. However, the conflict in the Middle East has shaken this system. Experts warn that a prolonged conflict could discourage passengers from transiting through the Gulf and affect how these companies operate in the long term.
If people feel unsafe to travel, fearing they might get stuck or that airports might suddenly close due to attacks – this could seriously damage the model that has been so successful so far.
WHY ARE TICKET PRICES EXPECTED TO INCREASE?
The main question is how much damage has been done to the Gulf’s reputation as a global aviation hub and whether its model has suffered long-term damage. Much depends on the duration of the conflict, experts say. If it ends quickly, Gulf airlines could recover quickly, bringing back passengers through cheap ticket offers.
But if the conflict drags on, more and more passengers will look for alternatives, choosing other routes via different air hubs such as Singapore, Bangkok, Hong Kong or Tokyo. At the same time, the long-term lack of capacity usually offered by Gulf companies will inevitably lead to higher prices. In short: less competition means more expensive tickets. European airlines have already reacted to the crisis in the Middle East by changing schedules and adding flights that avoid stops in the Persian Gulf. For example, British Airways has added flights to Bangkok and Singapore, while Lufthansa and Air France-KLM have increased capacity to Asia.
However, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), European carriers do not have enough resources to fully replace Gulf carriers, which typically account for around 9.5% of global capacity. This means their market influence remains very large.
THE END OF THE “BAY DREAM”?
It’s worth noting that the future of this model has been questioned before, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, some experts thought that companies that rely on long-haul flights and transit passengers were not flexible enough. But in reality, the recovery was swift, and companies like Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways have reported healthy profits in recent years.
The aviation industry has weathered many crises over the years – from epidemics to geopolitical events and economic crises – and has usually managed to recover. However, this time the risk is broader and does not only affect aviation. Especially Dubai, which in recent years has transformed from a transit point into an important center for business and tourism. The Gulf states have always had strong oil and gas sectors, but economic diversification has been a major priority. The development of aviation has played a key role in this process, helping to attract investment, tourists and professionals from around the world.
According to experts, the United Arab Emirates has become a place where people want to live, work and do business, and a large part of this success is related to the attractiveness of Dubai.
However, this prosperity could be at risk if air traffic does not recover quickly, especially for the tourism sector, which is very sensitive to security perceptions. Some believe it will take 2-3 years for security concerns to fully subside. But others remain more optimistic, believing that the Region will quickly return to its role as a major global aviation hub. (BBC)