The wave of the AfD, Germany’s far-right party, has swept through almost the entire state of Saxony-Anhalt. Five years ago, most constituencies in this state voted for the CDU, the center-right party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
This time the result has changed significantly.
In the 2021 elections, the AfD came first in only one constituency, while the CDU won in 40 others. Now the situation has been reversed: the AfD came first in 38 constituencies, while the left-wing party Die Linke won in the remaining three constituencies, which are located in the largest cities, Magdeburg and Halle.
Voter turnout data shows how the AfD achieved this result. The party convinced 157 people to vote who had not participated in the elections five years ago.
But the bulk of the new votes came from the CDU. Around 83 CDU voters switched to the AfD.
The AfD also received around 20 votes from left-wing parties and almost as many from the FDP, the liberal party, which this time failed to pass the 5% threshold to enter the state parliament.
Only about 2 voters have left the AfD for Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW party.
Men vote more for the AfD
The difference between men and women is clear. Around half of the men in Saxony-Anhalt voted for the AfD. Among women, support for the party is 39%.
In contrast, women voted more for the CDU: 19% of women, compared to 15% of men.
The AfD is also very strong among young people
The data by age is particularly interesting.
Among young people under 25, the AfD received 42% of the vote. The CDU, which has governed Saxony-Anhalt since 2002, received just 5% in this age group.
The left-wing party Die Linke has received 17% of the vote among young people under 25.
However, the AfD’s biggest support is among middle-aged people. Among voters aged 35 to 59, it received more than 52% of the vote.
The AfD’s weakest result is among people over 70, where it is tied with the CDU, with 31% each.
Meanwhile, the Greens have received the greatest support among young people aged 25–34, with 16%.
Less education, more votes for the AfD
Another important factor is the level of education.
Among people with secondary or vocational education, the AfD received almost 60% of the vote. In this group, the Greens received only 3-5%.
Meanwhile, among university graduates, support for the AfD drops to 30%. In this group, the Greens get 16%, almost double their overall result.
For the CDU, education level seems to have very little impact: the party has obtained similar results among both those with lower and higher education.
Economic discontent favors the AfD
The economic situation also seems to have greatly influenced the way people voted.
Among workers, the AfD received almost 60% of the vote.
Among those who say they are unhappy with their financial situation, the AfD has received almost two-thirds of the vote. No other party has reached 10% in this group.
The SPD, the main party on the German left, performed particularly poorly. Among people who feel more economically insecure, the SPD received just 3% of the vote.
On the other hand, among people who are satisfied with their income and economic situation, support for the AfD drops to 37%. The CDU reaches 20%, while the SPD and the Greens also score better.
The German philosopher Hegel wrote that “the owl of Minerva takes flight only at dusk ,” meaning that the meaning of events often becomes clear only after they have happened. In the case of Saxony-Anhalt, however, the election result could be the beginning of a new era, not just for German politics, but also for European politics.