By Carl BILDT
Dark politics are haunting the Balkans again. The semi-official funeral this month in Belgrade of convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić, whom many Bosnian Serbs still venerate, has brought to the surface the traumas of the past and revived nationalist tensions. Diplomatic relations between Serbia and Bosnia are deteriorating, casting further doubt on Serbia’s membership in the European Union, which is already half-blocked.
Worse still, while Europe and the United States were once largely unified in their support for the fragile political process in Bosnia, this is no longer the case. While previous American presidents might have been accused of excessive interference, the Donald Trump administration has shown no interest in the Region’s sensitive political processes. Its only interest is in advancing narrow economic interests, and this has meant tolerating or even supporting hardline Serbian nationalists in Bosnia.
For example, the Trump administration has backed a gas pipeline that would connect the Croatian coast to Sarajevo (the capital of Bosnia). At first glance, such a project makes sense, given its potential to ease the Region’s dependence on Russian gas. But when contracts could be suspiciously awarded to a previously unknown company whose leaders have “personal ties to Donald Trump,” red flags begin to rise.
Warning lights are also flashing on the political front. Bosnia will hold elections this October, and depending on the outcome, radical Serb forces could join forces with radical Croats to change the country’s governing framework. The timing for such a maneuver is ideal, because the US would, of course, turn a blind eye. But if it succeeds, the Bosniak (Muslim) community will feel threatened and react accordingly. This will increase the risk of a downward spiral that could lead to a deep liberation of the country. Moreover, Serbia will also hold elections in October. After years of massive student protests, the government is facing a coalition of opposition parties united under a single banner. With the outcome still far from certain, one can easily imagine a scenario in which the populist regime of President Aleksandar Vučić simply declares victory, causing even more instability.
The situation in Kosovo is no longer calm. Reconciliation talks between Serbia and Kosovo have stalled, and local authorities in the divided city of Mitrovica have not yet been given responsibility for the bridge connecting the Serbian and Albanian districts, due to fears of what might happen next.
Overall, the country’s political system is in tatters, and anger over the recent conviction of Hashim Thaçi, a former military leader who served as Kosovo’s president from 2016 to 2020, by the Kosovo Specialist Chambers, has further alienated the country from its previous international partners.
None of these developments would necessarily be liberating on their own. But, taken together, they risk creating a critical mass of nationalist sentiment. The central idea behind the peace processes a quarter of a century ago was that a combination of EU accession talks and reconciliation, facilitated by various international tribunals, would gradually bring stability and cooperation to the Region. But this hope has not been realized. With the exception of Montenegro, and perhaps Albania, EU integration has stalled and lost much of its power as a motivating force. Equally disappointing, the proceedings led by the international tribunals in The Hague have been so grotesquely prolonged that they have no chance of promoting reconciliation. They may even be making the situation worse.
Tiny Montenegro is still on a promising trajectory, but whether its bid for EU membership can survive a new storm of Regional turmoil is far from certain. If Serbia has an interest in destabilizing its neighbor, it could easily do so.
As is always the case in the Balkans, there are no easy solutions to address the rising tensions. Each country has its own political processes, but the risk of mutually reinforcing contagion is high. With the US focused solely on private economic interests, and with the EU distracted by Russian aggression and US unpredictability, the prospects for coherent international policies to restore stability, promote reconciliation, and support integration are bleak. This does not mean that we are heading for a new round of Balkan wars. But even limited clashes could be enough to push the entire Region onto a more uncertain and dangerous path. Political leaders, especially in Europe, should heed the alarm. The Balkans brought major wars to Europe twice in the last century, and it could easily create instability in this century as well.
(Carl Bildt is a former Prime Minister and former Foreign Minister of Sweden)