By Garry KASPAROV
With its latest package of sanctions against Russia, Europe continues to show how out of step with the growing threat from Moscow. The document reads like a series of stingy financial negotiations: an exemption for sable furs, following demands from Italy and Greece – the two main buyers of Russian fur – as well as an exemption for Greece to continue shipping Russian liquefied natural gas to countries outside the EU, following objections from that side.
The European bureaucracy is still trying to maximize profit margins and minimize threats to it. This is how a smart company acts to ensure the best quarterly results for its shareholders; this is not how states act when they are at war.
Of course, Europe has yet to openly admit that it is engaged in a full-blown war with Russia. While Putin has been fighting bare-knuckle for years, Europe has largely stuck to its peacetime algorithm, adding a few arms shipments and sanctions here and there to keep the mouths moist. Ukraine is paying in blood every day, while the Baltic states, Finns, and Poles are actively preparing for an invasion beyond their borders. Meanwhile, Western and Southern Europe continue to carefully weigh the costs and benefits.
Faced with this miserable response, Putin only continues to escalate the situation. Just a few months ago, it was still possible to detect some hesitation in the Russian government about war. However, as I write these lines, the entire vertical of power has mobilized for war. Now there are no longer any hesitaters; the motto from top to bottom is: fight to the bitter end, no matter the cost.
Putin has signaled a massive mobilization campaign – involving up to 500,000 soldiers – after September’s parliamentary elections. The state propaganda machine is working tirelessly to prepare the ground for this extraordinary measure. Unlike in Europe, Putin understands that a war effort requires the whole of society; it requires sacrifice and pain.
The president of Kazakhstan recently asked Putin to de-escalate the conflict in Ukraine. Putin’s response was a flat refusal: de-escalation is impossible, and the very suggestion only shows that Tokayev does not understand the nature of the war. There is neither subtlety nor prudence in this statement. It reveals a stance that has only hardened over time; Putin will not take “no” for an answer. He will not stop, unless he is stopped by force.
I have written throughout the war – four and a half long years – about how woefully inadequate the European (and, for that matter, American) response to Russian aggression has been. On more than one occasion I have outlined possible steps Europe could have taken: withdrawing its ambassadors from Moscow, striking the Russian fleet in the shadows, and suspending Orbán’s Hungary from NATO.
But as time has passed, as the war has steadily approached the capitals of Western Europe, the gap between threat and response has only widened. I cannot help but recall a historical anecdote from the French Revolution when – after the storming of the Bastille in 1789 – Louis XVI incredulously asked one of his dukes: “Is this an insurrection?” To which the Duke of La Rochefoucauld replied: “No, Your Majesty, it is a revolution.” Europe’s leaders have proven themselves as disconnected from reality as the notoriously insular and inept French aristocracy.
At this point, the above measures and others that I have recommended in the past – some more narrowly focused on specific Russian sectors, others more as symbolic ways to strip Russia of international prestige – will not be enough. Had Europe taken them at the time, we might be facing a different situation today. Putin, like all successful dictators, relies on animal instinct, and any concessions from European leaders have been an unmistakable whiff of weakness to him.
Today, the only acceptable response left is to strip Russia of all legal mechanisms and economic resources that can be used to protect its interests. Russia must become an outlaw state on the international stage, and all of Putin’s cronies must become unwelcome wherever they go. Currently, Russian oligarchs move freely throughout Europe and enjoy all the rights and freedoms guaranteed to European citizens. (In an almost unimaginable example, the wife of the Russian spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has just gone to the European Court of Justice seeking more than two million euros in damages for losses from sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.)
Moreover, these measures cannot be more reactive. Europe must go on the offensive and present Putin with a clear threat if he goes any further. Leaders must agree on a package of measures that will take effect immediately – according to pre-established mechanisms – if Putin dares to cross NATO’s border. This is the kind of crystal-clear red line that makes a dictator stop and think, not vague statements and half-hearted sanctions.
Europe cannot continue to express solidarity with Ukraine and pledge to fight Russia while its economic and legal institutions continue to support the regime. The new British Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, wrote after meeting with President Zelensky: “Britain stands with Ukraine, always. Russia should have no doubt about our resolve, and we will not back down until we achieve a just and lasting peace for Ukraine.” I agree with every word.
But I don’t blame Putin for not taking any of this seriously. Until Europe’s actions match its many declarations and commitments, the threat – and the response needed to counter it – will only continue to grow. World War II was also the “Phoney War” for the British and French during its first eight months, until the Western Front itself became a theater of war.
I hope that Europe’s leaders will not repeat the mistakes of history and wake up before war reaches their soil and leaves them with no other choice. (The Telegraph)