Since the late 1980s, Trump’s obsession has not been the Soviet Union, but Japan. Even now, when he rarely blames China, he points the finger at American corporations. If he were in China’s shoes, he too would “eat America for breakfast.”
By Financial Times
The year 2025 is not even halfway through, but China is the clear winner so far. At a steady and unstoppable pace, Donald Trump is handing Beijing a series of major benefits. His adoration for Xi Jinping, which seems to grow every time the latter shows consistency and authority, makes it seem as if Trump wants China to keep winning. In an increasingly hostile American political climate towards China, Trump is perhaps the only “swallow” speaking differently to Beijing. But his voice is the only one that really carries weight.
Trump’s respect for China is unusual. Zbigniew Brzezinski once accused Henry Kissinger of a “conspicuous fascination with enemies and a disregard for friends.” This has been felt by America’s Indo-Pacific allies, who have encountered Trump’s indifference or hostility.
Since the late 1980s, Trump’s obsession has not been the Soviet Union, but Japan. Even now, when he rarely blames China, he points the finger at American corporations. If he were in China’s shoes, he too would “eat America for breakfast.”
The geopolitical effects of a second Trump term are extraordinary. Over the past two decades, US administrations have been supporting China’s neighbors to balance its influence. Trump is undoing this effort with alarming speed. The most striking case is India. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shown humility to Trump, but to no avail. Last week, Trump threatened 25% tariffs on India and accused it of financing Russia’s war by buying oil. Even 100% “secondary” tariffs on India could follow. For more than 25 years, helping a strong India has been one of the most important American strategies against China. But Trump is calling that approach into question. He claimed (according to India, unfairly) to have stopped a war between India and Pakistan in May.
Meanwhile, he is getting closer to Pakistan: on the same day he invited Modi to Washington, Trump had a private dinner with Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir (an unusual move for a US president). Modi politely declined the invitation. Now, Trump is mocking India, saying it has a “dead economy” and that it may one day be forced to import oil from Pakistan. This is how friends are lost and influence is damaged.
Taiwan has every reason to be as worried as India. Trump has slapped 20% tariffs on the world’s largest chip manufacturing hub and accused it of profiting at America’s expense. Last week, he refused to allow Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, a transit stop in New York, fearing it would anger China.
Kissinger’s strategy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan (the idea that China could not be sure whether the US would intervene or not) has been replaced with tactical myopia. Trump could sacrifice Taiwan’s security to obtain trade concessions from China.
Is there any geopolitical strategy in Trump’s “madness”? Only in a primitive way: he respects China’s sphere of influence and demands that China respect America’s. Every “great predator” should have its own territory. Trump still wants Greenland and dreams of the Panama Canal because he sees China expanding into the Arctic and the Western Hemisphere. But he doesn’t care much about China’s neighborhood. When the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., recently told him that China was “unilaterally changing the world order,” Trump ignored him: “We’re doing very well with China,” he replied. Xi Jinping has countless reasons to be grateful to Trump. Two of them are of global importance. First, Trump is handing over to Beijing the leading role in the “great game” in the global south. The destruction of USAID and the trade war with the poorest countries of Africa and Latin America are bringing those continents closer to China.
Second, as Adam Tooze has written, Trump is making it easier for China to win the industrial race for clean energy. He is also easing Biden’s restrictions on China’s access to advanced chip technologies. Last year, China added more renewable energy capacity than the rest of the world combined. Since January, Trump has been eliminating subsidies for green energy in the US and has restored slogans like “drill, drill, drill” for fossil fuel production as a pillar of his presidency. This nostalgia for carbon is China’s greatest gift. The future of the world is being written in China. Trump is a co-author of it, without realizing it.