Trump’s usual self-satisfaction, praising himself and the “brilliant” of his achievements, should be viewed with skepticism. His narcissistic statements in Israel and Egypt this week are a sham. That alone is not enough to celebrate the “historic dawn of a new Middle East” or the arrival of a “lasting peace,” as the American president puts it.
By Alain FRACHON
First, the diplomatic performance must be applauded, Donald Trump’s method has been successful in the Middle East. All Israeli hostages still alive in the hands of Hamas were released on Monday, October 13. The Israeli attack on Gaza City has stopped, and increased humanitarian aid is expected to reach the inhabited population. The first phase of the US president’s plan looks like a success, leaving Israel in a rare, strong, but at the same time isolated position. However, neither the importance of this initial phase, nor the difficulties overcome, should be minimized, even though this result could have been achieved as early as January.
“But to achieve this, it required near-perfect Regional political and diplomatic coordination. The Trump team managed to simultaneously win the trust of Israel, Hamas, Qatar, Turkey, the Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates,” journalist Thomas Friedman wrote in the New York Times on October 9.
However, Trump’s usual self-congratulatory rhetoric, praising himself and the “brilliant” of his achievements, should be viewed with skepticism. His narcissistic statements in Israel and Egypt this week are a sham. This alone is not enough to celebrate the “historic dawn of a new Middle East” or the arrival of a “lasting peace,” as the American president puts it. In the memory of the peoples involved, these two years of war will not be forgotten quickly, by either side. But from a strategic or political point of view, they leave Israel in a position of military dominance that has rarely been seen before. Almost the entire Arab world has put pressure on Hamas. No state with diplomatic relations with Israel has broken them. No Arab state has military ambitions against Israel and no army to threaten it.
As for the non-state adversaries, Palestinian Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shiite militias operating from Syria, they have been significantly weakened by the Israeli military. Iran, the main backer of these militias, has proven vulnerable and incapable of defending its territory.
However, the very form of the Israeli response to the events of October 7, 2023 has damaged the country’s image. The campaign of mass destruction in Gaza has made life unbearable for over 2 million residents, causing 67 casualties according to Hamas, the majority of whom were civilians. The legitimate question arises: how does the existence of a large enclave of misery on its southern border guarantee Israel’s security? Israel’s image has plummeted among traditional allies and friends. In the US, polls show for the first time greater support for Palestine than for Israel. In Europe, especially among young people, the impact has been even stronger. Some friendly countries, such as France and the United Kingdom, have even taken the initiative to recognize the Palestinian state.
At the UN, Israel appears more isolated than ever. This has helped Trump pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu to agree to his peace plan.
However, mobile phones and public opinion in the Arab world recall 2 years of war, and without the fulfillment of two conditions, a greater role for the Palestinian Authority and a ban on colonization in the West Bank, no Arab state will actively participate in the implementation of the Trump plan. The document presented on September 29 does not necessarily foresee these elements. Thus, the search for an Israeli-Palestinian peace remains an issue that continues from the beginning all the time…